Sun, Jan 2, 2011·Pepsi Center, Denver
Vancouver Canucks 2, Colorado Avalanche 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 18 | 010 | 111 | 229 |
| COL | 010 | 09 | 113 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:15VANAlexandre BolducAssists: Tanner Glass, Roberto Luongo · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P3 3:11VANMason RaymondGWGAssists: Alexandre Bolduc, Kevin Bieksa · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P3 13:35COLPaul StastnyAssists: Matt Duchene, John-Michael Liles · Wrist, 0.41 xG2–1
Penalties (16)
- P1 5:28COLRyan Wilson: Cross checking2 min
- P1 5:28VANRyan Kesler: Diving2 min
- P1 7:56COLDavid Jones: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:37VANRaffi Torres: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:12VANKevin Bieksa: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:31VANKeith Ballard: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:55COLAdam Foote: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:55VANAlexandre Bolduc: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:55VANRaffi Torres: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:07COLMilan Hejduk: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:19VANChristian Ehrhoff: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:52COLKevin Shattenkirk: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:00VANRyan Kesler: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:00COLRyan O'Byrne: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:41VANRyan Kesler: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:36COLMilan Hejduk: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malhotra won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBolduc – Glass – Raymond4:07
xG 0.31–0.18 (64%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Samuelsson – Sedin – Sedin2:47
xG 0.08–0.03 (76%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows7:42
xG 0.12–0.11 (54%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Kesler – Tambellini – Hansen8:08
xG 0.05–0.16 (22%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Bieksa12:52
xG 0.45–0.26 (64%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – Edler12:56
xG 0.19–0.45 (30%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Alberts – Ballard11:19
xG 0.10–1.20 (8%)attempts 7–17goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestPorter – Winnik – O'Reilly3:21
xG 0.50–0.04 (93%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Hejduk – Stastny – Duchene2:27
xG 0.44–0.02 (96%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Mauldin – Dupuis – Galiardi2:06
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Hejduk – Fleischmann – Duchene5:47
xG 0.27–0.05 (84%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – O'Byrne5:32
xG 0.71–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Liles – Shattenkirk6:27
xG 0.68–0.47 (59%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Hunwick – Shattenkirk5:37
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).