Mon, Jan 3, 2011·RBC Center, Raleigh
Florida Panthers 4, Carolina Hurricanes 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 110 | 111 | 16 | 11 | 428 |
| CAR | 18 | 012 | 216 | 01 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:47CARZac DalpeAssists: Troy Bodie · Tip-in, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 19:27FLADennis WidemanAssists: Cory Stillman, Radek Dvorak · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 11:57FLAChris HigginsAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Michael Frolik · Wrist, 0.48 xG2–1
- P3 5:11FLACory StillmanAssists: Mike Santorelli, Evgenii Dadonov · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 6:05CARZach BoychukAssists: Erik Cole, Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 9:42CARJay HarrisonAssists: Erik Cole, Jamie McBain · Snap, 0.07 xG3–3
- OT 1:16FLABryan AllenGWGAssists: Shawn Matthias, Michael Frolik · Slap, 0.01 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:46FLADmitry Kulikov: Holding2 min
- P2 0:14FLAJason Garrison: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:35CARTim Gleason: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:12FLAChris Higgins: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 4:12CARTim Gleason: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 12:39FLAMarty Reasoner: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Reasoner won the faceoff against Skinner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestWeiss – Higgins – Frolik10:31
xG 0.74–0.07 (91%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Booth – Santorelli – Dadonov11:07
xG 1.00–0.45 (69%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
- Bernier – Olesz – Matthias5:34
xG 0.19–0.29 (39%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Weiss – Olesz – Frolik3:10
xG 0.06–0.44 (12%)attempts 1–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Kulikov14:37
xG 1.57–0.51 (76%)attempts 19–13goals 2–1
- Allen – Wideman14:59
xG 0.63–0.66 (49%)attempts 13–19goals 1–1
- Allen – Weaver2:01
xG 0.01–0.21 (6%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSamsonov – Cole – Staal8:50
xG 0.50–0.15 (76%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Cole – Staal – Boychuk5:13
xG 0.30–0.11 (72%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Ruutu – LaRose – Skinner10:25
xG 0.57–0.50 (53%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Bodie – Carter – Dalpe5:11
xG 0.43–0.43 (50%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarrison – McBain15:21
xG 1.04–0.41 (72%)attempts 21–11goals 0–0
- Harrison – White4:38
xG 0.35–0.01 (97%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Gleason – White3:26
xG 0.34–0.24 (59%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).