Mon, Jan 3, 2011·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Vancouver Canucks 4, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 115 | 211 | 121 | 447 |
| SJS | 07 | 315 | 013 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:09VANDaniel SedinAssists: Henrik Sedin, Alexandre Burrows · Slap, 0.32 xG1–0
- P2 5:08SJSRyane CloweAssists: Jason Demers, Benn Ferriero · Tip-in, 0.43 xG1–1
- P2 8:14VANAlexander EdlerPPAssists: Christian Ehrhoff, Daniel Sedin · Snap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 12:18SJSPatrick MarleauPPAssists: Dany Heatley, Dan Boyle · Wrist, 0.35 xG2–2
- P2 15:21SJSJamal MayersAssists: Dany Heatley, Kent Huskins · Snap, 0.04 xG2–3
- P2 18:35VANJannik HansenAssists: Ryan Kesler, Mason Raymond · Wrist, 0.45 xG3–3
- P3 8:57VANAlexandre BurrowsGWGAssists: Christian Ehrhoff, Keith Ballard · Slap, 0.53 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:49VANHenrik Sedin: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:35VANTanner Glass: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:35SJSJamal Mayers: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:15SJSDan Boyle: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:31SJSLogan Couture: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:18VANHenrik Sedin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:24SJSBrandon Mashinter: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:24VANTanner Glass: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:40SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malhotra won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Burrows11:30
xG 1.81–0.34 (84%)attempts 19–10goals 2–1
- Kesler – Tambellini – Raymond8:31
xG 0.62–0.08 (89%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Kesler – Hansen – Raymond5:07
xG 0.79–0.27 (74%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Bolduc – Glass – Hansen4:30
xG 0.18–0.52 (26%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Edler14:34
xG 1.40–0.40 (78%)attempts 23–13goals 1–1
- Hamhuis – Bieksa18:10
xG 0.86–0.20 (81%)attempts 20–11goals 0–0
- Ballard – Rome11:47
xG 0.94–1.63 (37%)attempts 11–17goals 1–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestClowe – Ferriero – Couture12:31
xG 1.69–0.83 (67%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
- Nichol – Heatley – McGinn2:54
xG 0.22–0.13 (62%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Setoguchi9:22
xG 0.32–0.38 (46%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Mayers – Nichol – Heatley3:06
xG 0.07–0.18 (28%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHuskins – Vlasic13:52
xG 1.01–0.82 (55%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Wallin – Demers14:32
xG 0.66–0.72 (48%)attempts 11–16goals 1–1
- Boyle – Murray15:44
xG 0.62–2.00 (24%)attempts 14–23goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).