Tue, Jan 4, 2011·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Detroit Red Wings 5, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 111 | 217 | 29 | 537 |
| EDM | 16 | 09 | 210 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:43DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Nicklas Lidstrom, Drew Miller · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 11:38EDMGilbert BruleAssists: Liam Reddox, Linus Omark · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 6:40DETTodd BertuzziAssists: Jiri Hudler, Valtteri Filppula · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 10:43DETKris DraperAssists: Darren Helm, Brian Rafalski · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 4:54EDMTheo PeckhamAssists: Sam Gagner, Ales Hemsky · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 11:31EDMSam GagnerAssists: Ales Hemsky · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3
- P3 17:10DETTodd BertuzziGWGAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Valtteri Filppula · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–3
- P3 17:54DETDarren HelmAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Nicklas Lidstrom · Snap, 0.16 xG5–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 0:00EDMLadislav Smid: Boarding2 min
- P2 3:37DETJustin Abdelkader: Holding2 min
- P2 14:39DETBrian Rafalski: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:21EDMMagnus Paajarvi: Holding2 min
- P3 0:20DETNicklas Lidstrom: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cogliano won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestDraper – Helm – Tatar10:15
xG 0.74–0.17 (82%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Holmstrom – Zetterberg – Franzen12:12
xG 0.49–0.05 (91%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Filppula – Hudler10:34
xG 0.77–0.36 (68%)attempts 12–6goals 2–1
- Miller – Abdelkader – Mursak6:02
xG 0.20–0.03 (88%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLidstrom – Stuart16:33
xG 0.91–0.42 (69%)attempts 17–15goals 2–1
- Salei – Kronwall14:00
xG 0.69–0.23 (75%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Rafalski – Ericsson11:47
xG 0.82–0.39 (68%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Hemsky – Gagner – Paajarvi10:42
xG 0.48–0.70 (41%)attempts 8–13goals 2–1
- Reddox – Brule – Omark9:34
xG 0.36–0.60 (37%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Jacques – Fraser – Jones5:40
xG 0.00–0.43 (0%)attempts 2–9goals 0–1
- Penner – Cogliano – Hall13:32
xG 0.18–0.78 (18%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Vandermeer – Foster10:54
xG 0.20–0.55 (26%)attempts 5–12goals 0–2
- Smid – Petry15:20
xG 0.17–0.81 (17%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
- Gilbert – Peckham16:39
xG 0.54–1.29 (29%)attempts 13–22goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).