Tue, Jan 4, 2011·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Phoenix Coyotes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 08 | 19 | 111 | 228 |
| PHX | 014 | 29 | 210 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:40PHXScottie UpshallAssists: Eric Belanger, Shane Doan · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 9:37PHXSami LepistoAssists: Martin Hanzal, Radim Vrbata · Backhand, 0.23 xG0–2
- P2 11:57CBJR.J. UmbergerAssists: Rick Nash, Derick Brassard · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–2
- P3 7:51CBJJakub VoracekPPAssists: Derick Brassard, Fedor Tyutin · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 11:11PHXShane DoanGWGAssists: Keith Yandle, Eric Belanger · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 12:03PHXVernon FiddlerAssists: Adrian Aucoin, Taylor Pyatt · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:14CBJAntoine Vermette: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:54PHXScottie Upshall: Kneeing2 min
- P1 8:54PHXScottie Upshall: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:54CBJKris Russell: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:12CBJAnton Stralman: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:27CBJKris Russell: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 3:07CBJAntoine Vermette: Interference2 min
- P2 12:14CBJDerick Brassard: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:14PHXAdrian Aucoin: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:59PHXScottie Upshall: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Hanzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestUmberger – Brassard – Voracek6:23
xG 0.56–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Vermette – Nash – Voracek5:39
xG 0.40–0.27 (60%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Huselius – Vermette – Nash7:24
xG 0.15–0.15 (49%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Pahlsson – Boll – Dorsett3:00
xG 0.05–0.12 (28%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – Russell13:43
xG 0.75–0.34 (69%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Stralman14:30
xG 0.99–1.16 (46%)attempts 14–13goals 1–2
- Klesla – Methot10:54
xG 0.14–0.99 (12%)attempts 8–19goals 0–2
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Belanger – Upshall5:50
xG 0.44–0.10 (82%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Whitney – Vrbata – Hanzal10:57
xG 0.68–0.63 (52%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Pyatt – Fiddler – Stempniak11:04
xG 0.49–0.57 (46%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLepisto – Schlemko11:48
xG 0.87–0.16 (85%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Morris – Yandle15:48
xG 0.92–0.64 (59%)attempts 17–16goals 1–0
- Aucoin – Jovanovski13:16
xG 0.53–0.89 (37%)attempts 5–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).