Wed, Jan 5, 2011·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 08 | 07 | 117 | 132 |
| PIT | 520 | 216 | 15 | 841 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:07PITEvgeni MalkinUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 2:23PITChris ConnerGWGAssists: Ben Lovejoy, Matt Cooke · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–2
- P1 7:17PITTyler KennedyAssists: Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–3
- P1 7:42PITChris KunitzAssists: Sidney Crosby, Pascal Dupuis · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–4
- P1 18:56PITChris KunitzPPAssists: Alex Goligoski, Kris Letang · Slap, 0.41 xG0–5
- P2 12:54PITMark LetestuAssists: Tyler Kennedy, Alex Goligoski · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–6
- P2 19:49PITChris KunitzPPAssists: Alex Goligoski, Kris Letang · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–7
- P3 2:25TBLAdam HallAssists: Nate Thompson, Dana Tyrell · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–7
- P3 3:38PITAlex GoligoskiAssists: Chris Conner, Ben Lovejoy · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–8
Penalties (13)
- P1 18:26TBLPavel Kubina: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 19:06TBLSteve Downie: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:37PITBen Lovejoy: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P2 6:05TBLSteve Downie: Diving2 min
- P2 6:05PITMike Rupp: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:41TBLVictor Hedman: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 5:00PITBen Lovejoy: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:08TBLRyan Malone: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:08PITZbynek Michalek: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:08PITBrooks Orpik: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:08TBLRyan Malone: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:40TBLSean Bergenheim: Boarding2 min
- P3 16:33PITSidney Crosby: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lecavalier won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestHall – Thompson – Tyrell7:23
xG 0.57–0.07 (89%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- St. Louis – Downie – Stamkos6:45
xG 0.11–0.09 (56%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Malone – Stamkos2:10
xG 0.25–0.24 (51%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- St. Louis – Lecavalier – Gagne2:44
xG 0.03–0.13 (18%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKubina – Hedman5:28
xG 0.51–0.16 (76%)attempts 5–6goals 0–2
- Clark – Hedman5:41
xG 0.27–0.27 (49%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Kubina – Smaby4:46
xG 0.14–0.16 (47%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Kunitz – Crosby10:49
xG 0.70–0.26 (73%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Malkin – Kennedy – Staal6:20
xG 0.38–0.24 (61%)attempts 9–3goals 2–0
- Adams – Rupp – Talbot5:49
xG 0.04–0.01 (77%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Cooke – Conner – Letestu8:31
xG 0.41–0.79 (34%)attempts 12–14goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Michalek15:38
xG 1.06–0.46 (70%)attempts 21–14goals 1–1
- Goligoski – Lovejoy13:38
xG 0.80–0.81 (50%)attempts 19–18goals 2–0
- Orpik – Letang13:09
xG 0.44–0.50 (47%)attempts 17–10goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).