Wed, Jan 5, 2011·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Atlanta Thrashers 3, Florida Panthers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 212 | 18 | 011 | 331 |
| FLA | 114 | 05 | 116 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:52ATLNiclas BergforsAssists: Andrew Ladd · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 14:16FLAStephen WeissAssists: Chris Higgins, Michael Frolik · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 19:29ATLRich PeverleyPPAssists: Nik Antropov, Toby Enstrom · Backhand, 0.55 xG2–1
- P2 6:27ATLRich PeverleyGWGAssists: Andrew Ladd, Zach Bogosian · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 12:39FLAChris HigginsAssists: Mike Weaver, Jason Garrison · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 16:04FLABryan Allen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 18:34FLADmitry Kulikov: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 18:59FLAJason Garrison: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:27ATLNiclas Bergfors: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:46FLARostislav Olesz: Interference2 min
- P2 17:05ATLFreddy Modin: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:58FLAChris Higgins: Interference2 min
- P3 1:44FLAShawn Matthias: Boarding5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Reasoner won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- Modin – Stewart – Little5:39
xG 0.08–0.09 (46%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Ladd – Bergfors – Little4:30
xG 0.05–0.15 (26%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Ladd – Peverley – Bergfors5:31
xG 0.05–0.17 (21%)attempts 2–8goals 1–0
- Thorburn – Cormier – Kane7:46
xG 0.03–0.17 (15%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Bogosian15:23
xG 0.28–0.12 (70%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Sopel – Hainsey9:27
xG 0.09–0.34 (22%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien11:23
xG 0.21–0.67 (24%)attempts 9–20goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestWeiss – Higgins – Frolik10:14
xG 0.47–0.11 (81%)attempts 15–5goals 2–0
- Stillman – Dvorak – Reasoner8:55
xG 0.38–0.24 (62%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Hordichuk – Bernier – Matthias4:01
xG 0.16–0.07 (71%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Olesz – Booth – Santorelli6:39
xG 0.15–0.10 (59%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestAllen – Wideman13:56
xG 0.83–0.20 (81%)attempts 21–8goals 0–1
- Weaver – Garrison9:42
xG 0.36–0.13 (73%)attempts 12–8goals 2–1
- McCabe – Kulikov14:38
xG 0.18–0.32 (36%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − ATL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).