Thu, Jan 6, 2011·Prudential Center, Newark
Philadelphia Flyers 4, New Jersey Devils 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 07 | 27 | 26 | 420 |
| NJD | 17 | 12 | 011 | 220 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:37NJDDainius ZubrusAssists: Anton Volchenkov, Patrik Elias · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 15:46PHIScott HartnellAssists: Ville Leino, Matt Carle · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 17:40NJDDavid ClarksonAssists: Andy Greene · Snap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 18:54PHIScott HartnellAssists: Ville Leino, Kimmo Timonen · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 2:48PHIDaniel BrièreGWGAssists: Ville Leino, Matt Carle · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 11:34PHIDaniel BrièreUnassisted · Tip-in, 0.17 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:44NJDMark Fraser: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:55NJDAndy Greene: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:27PHIJeff Carter: Holding2 min
- P3 0:43NJDColin White: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:24NJDColin White: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Arnott won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestBrière – Hartnell – Leino11:24
xG 0.76–0.24 (76%)attempts 11–5goals 3–1
- Carter – Giroux – Powe10:25
xG 0.20–0.09 (68%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Shelley – Betts – Carcillo5:20
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Richards – Nodl – van Riemsdyk13:34
xG 0.33–0.66 (34%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Meszaros17:53
xG 0.73–0.16 (82%)attempts 18–6goals 2–0
- Timonen – Coburn16:51
xG 0.83–0.72 (54%)attempts 12–14goals 2–1
- O'Donnell – Coburn2:50
xG 0.03–0.09 (22%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestKovalchuk – Zajac – Palmieri10:23
xG 0.57–0.03 (95%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Clarkson – Sestito – Pelley4:37
xG 0.30–0.17 (64%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Arnott – Clarkson – Pelley3:57
xG 0.07–0.06 (54%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Arnott – Kovalchuk – Zharkov4:07
xG 0.03–0.09 (24%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWhite – Tallinder15:20
xG 0.61–0.41 (60%)attempts 8–10goals 0–2
- Volchenkov – Greene15:02
xG 0.42–0.53 (44%)attempts 11–11goals 2–1
- Fraser – Salmela12:05
xG 0.14–0.53 (21%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).