Thu, Jan 6, 2011·Centre Bell, Montreal
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Montréal Canadiens 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 113 | 07 | 012 | 00 | 0 | 132 |
| MTL | 05 | 113 | 04 | 01 | 1 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:14PITArron AshamAssists: Ben Lovejoy, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.43 xG1–0
- P2 12:28MTLBenoit PouliotAssists: Mathieu Darche, David Desharnais · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. MTL Michael Cammalleri stopped
- 2. PIT Kris Letang stopped
- 3. MTL P.K. Subban stopped
- 4. PIT Pascal Dupuis stopped
- 5. MTL Brian Gionta stopped
- 6. PIT Evgeni Malkin stopped
- 7. MTL Andrei Kostitsyn stopped
- 8. PIT Mark Letestu stopped
- 9. MTL Benoit Pouliot scored
- 10. PIT Chris Kunitz stopped
Penalties (7)
- P2 3:23MTLP.K. Subban: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:31PITBen Lovejoy: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:32MTLAndrei Kostitsyn: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:38PITTyler Kennedy: Interference2 min
- P3 9:40PITAlex Goligoski: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:02PITBrent Johnson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 11:26PITPaul Martin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestAsham – Talbot – Conner6:56
xG 0.63–0.24 (72%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Malkin – Kennedy – Staal9:01
xG 0.47–0.22 (69%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Letestu9:32
xG 0.23–0.13 (64%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Adams – Rupp – Malkin2:39
xG 0.18–0.10 (64%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Letang15:28
xG 0.94–0.29 (76%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Martin – Michalek12:59
xG 0.56–0.16 (78%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Lovejoy9:04
xG 0.65–0.33 (66%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestHalpern – Moen – Pyatt6:39
xG 0.15–0.05 (77%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Darche – Pouliot – Desharnais7:27
xG 0.13–0.04 (75%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Gomez – Gionta – Pacioretty11:02
xG 0.29–0.23 (55%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Plekanec – Kostitsyn13:29
xG 0.28–1.11 (20%)attempts 9–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGill – Subban18:58
xG 0.62–0.46 (57%)attempts 22–14goals 0–0
- Spacek – Wisniewski14:36
xG 0.76–0.93 (45%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
- Picard – Weber11:33
xG 0.07–0.70 (9%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).