Thu, Jan 6, 2011·Rexall Place, Edmonton
New York Islanders 1, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 013 | 110 | 08 | 131 |
| EDM | 29 | 06 | 07 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:22EDMGilbert BruleAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Dustin Penner · Wrist, 0.33 xG0–1
- P1 5:17EDMDustin PennerSHGWGAssists: Andrew Cogliano · Backhand, 0.22 xG0–2
- P2 13:00NYIBlake ComeauAssists: Rob Schremp, Josh Bailey · Snap, 0.05 xG1–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:31EDMDevan Dubnyk: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 11:02EDMGilbert Brule: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:03EDMLadislav Smid: Interference2 min
- P2 7:58EDMColin Fraser: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:58NYIMatt Martin: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:56EDMLadislav Smid: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:42NYITravis Hamonic: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:46EDMGilbert Brule: Interference2 min
- P3 14:28EDMLadislav Smid: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:49EDMTom Gilbert: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cogliano won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestJoensuu – Grabner – Bailey7:07
xG 0.29–0.15 (66%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Gillies – Konopka – Martin2:51
xG 0.04–0.02 (64%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Sim – Schremp – Comeau8:06
xG 0.11–0.23 (33%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares12:23
xG 0.53–0.92 (37%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJurcina – Hillen11:47
xG 0.63–0.27 (70%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic12:14
xG 0.39–0.76 (34%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Gervais – Reese11:40
xG 0.12–0.54 (18%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPenner – Brule – Cogliano9:06
xG 0.54–0.09 (85%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Hemsky – Gagner – Hall14:54
xG 0.38–0.20 (66%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Fraser – MacIntyre – Jones2:32
xG 0.04–0.02 (66%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Reddox – Omark – Paajarvi7:29
xG 0.19–0.25 (42%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmid – Petry10:21
xG 0.79–0.15 (84%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Peckham12:43
xG 0.53–0.35 (60%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Strudwick – Vandermeer3:02
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).