Thu, Jan 6, 2011·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Nashville Predators 5, Los Angeles Kings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 011 | 310 | 27 | 528 |
| LAK | 012 | 26 | 08 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:16LAKKyle CliffordAssists: Marco Sturm, Anze Kopitar · Backhand, 0.22 xG0–1
- P2 7:57LAKJarret StollPPAssists: Ryan Smyth, Anze Kopitar · Slap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 8:57NSHColin WilsonPPAssists: Ryan Suter, Sergei Kostitsyn · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 10:19NSHMarek SvatosAssists: Colin Wilson, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P2 14:28NSHPatric HornqvistPPGWGAssists: Colin Wilson, Ryan Suter · Tip-in, 0.20 xG3–2
- P3 9:10NSHSergei KostitsynAssists: Kevin Klein, Shane O'Brien · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–2
- P3 15:33NSHPatric HornqvistAssists: Shea Weber, Sergei Kostitsyn · Wrist, 0.30 xG5–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:33NSHPatric Hornqvist: Interference2 min
- P2 6:13NSHFrancis Bouillon: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 8:16LAKKyle Clifford: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:18LAKMatt Greene: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 14:42LAKWayne Simmonds: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:42NSHFrancis Bouillon: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:31LAKRyan Smyth: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Goc
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSmithson – Ward – Spaling4:24
xG 0.29–0.07 (82%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Legwand – Svatos – Wilson12:16
xG 0.36–0.31 (54%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Goc – Kostitsyn – Hornqvist14:23
xG 0.62–0.62 (50%)attempts 13–13goals 2–1
- Dumont – Smithson – Ward3:27
xG 0.05–0.06 (45%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouillon – Klein12:21
xG 0.41–0.11 (79%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Suter – Weber18:34
xG 0.57–0.47 (55%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
- O'Brien – Franson10:11
xG 0.13–0.27 (33%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- Smyth – Handzus – Williams12:31
xG 0.45–0.45 (50%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
- Sturm – Stoll – Clifford8:18
xG 0.10–0.14 (43%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Simmonds10:16
xG 0.13–0.24 (34%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Doughty4:06
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Johnson2:54
xG 0.19–0.04 (82%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Harrold – Drewiske2:48
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).