Fri, Jan 7, 2011·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Carolina Hurricanes 5, Florida Panthers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 010 | 213 | 312 | 535 |
| FLA | 213 | 011 | 111 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:36FLADavid BoothAssists: Mike Santorelli, Rostislav Olesz · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 12:30FLAMarty ReasonerAssists: Dennis Wideman, Bryan Allen · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 1:46CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Tuomo Ruutu, Jamie McBain · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 10:47CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Patrick Dwyer, Tuomo Ruutu · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 9:34CAREric StaalAssists: Zach Boychuk · Snap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 17:00CARErik ColeGWGAssists: Jeff Skinner, Tuomo Ruutu · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 19:10CARErik ColeENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.64 xG5–2
- P3 19:22FLAMarty ReasonerAssists: Mike Weaver, Radek Dvorak · Tip-in, 0.08 xG5–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:56FLACory Stillman: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 2:13CAREric Staal: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:07FLADmitry Kulikov: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:08CARSergei Samsonov: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 18:51FLASteve Bernier: Holding2 min
- P3 17:21CARChad LaRose: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Reasoner won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – LaRose – Skinner10:05
xG 0.46–0.36 (56%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Samsonov – Bodie – Matsumoto3:00
xG 0.11–0.11 (50%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Samsonov – Cole – Staal2:19
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Sutter – Dalpe10:29
xG 0.18–0.37 (33%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGleason – McBain9:14
xG 0.64–0.05 (93%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Gleason – White3:40
xG 0.11–0.19 (37%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Corvo – Carson4:17
xG 0.06–0.14 (28%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestWeiss – Higgins – Frolik14:03
xG 0.93–0.28 (76%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
- Bernier – Matthias – Dadonov5:56
xG 0.22–0.06 (79%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Stillman – Dvorak – Reasoner11:57
xG 0.49–0.39 (56%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Booth – Matthias – Dadonov5:01
xG 0.15–0.13 (53%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Garrison14:50
xG 0.79–0.26 (75%)attempts 16–10goals 2–0
- Allen – Weaver2:06
xG 0.54–0.05 (92%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Allen – Wideman13:05
xG 0.58–0.50 (54%)attempts 12–12goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).