Sat, Jan 8, 2011·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New Jersey Devils 1, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 012 | 112 | 011 | 135 |
| PHI | 211 | 08 | 010 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:13PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 14:41PHIDaniel BrièrePPGWGAssists: Claude Giroux, Kimmo Timonen · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–2
- P2 8:07NJDAndy GreeneUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:31NJDHenrik Tallinder: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 7:45PHIVille Leino: Holding2 min
- P1 8:58PHIMike Richards: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:43NJDAnssi Salmela: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:41NJDPatrik Elias: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:10PHIKimmo Timonen: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:25PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 17:54NJDHenrik Tallinder: Holding2 min
- P3 3:05NJDAdam Mair: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carter won the faceoff against Elias
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestRolston – Elias – Zubrus8:55
xG 0.42–0.24 (63%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Arnott – Mair – Zharkov2:49
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Clarkson – Sestito – Pelley7:50
xG 0.12–0.18 (40%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Arnott – Kovalchuk – Zharkov5:56
xG 0.34–0.44 (44%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVolchenkov – Greene11:59
xG 0.78–0.47 (62%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- White – Volchenkov2:09
xG 0.25–0.06 (80%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Fraser – Salmela3:27
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Richards – Nodl – van Riemsdyk10:57
xG 0.34–0.31 (53%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Brière – Hartnell – Leino10:31
xG 0.11–0.15 (42%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
- Shelley – Betts – Carcillo4:09
xG 0.11–0.30 (27%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Carter – Giroux – Powe9:02
xG 0.24–0.59 (29%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Coburn10:49
xG 0.60–0.14 (81%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Timonen – Meszaros2:07
xG 0.13–0.03 (83%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- O'Donnell – Coburn2:23
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).