Sat, Jan 8, 2011·Pepsi Center, Denver
New York Islanders 4, Colorado Avalanche 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 29 | 111 | 05 | 12 | 427 |
| COL | 212 | 011 | 113 | 01 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:45COLMilan HejdukAssists: TJ Galiardi, Adam Foote · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 1:47COLDavid KociAssists: Ryan O'Byrne, Philippe Dupuis · Slap, 0.01 xG0–2
- P1 5:52NYIJeremy CollitonPPAssists: Jon Sim, Andrew MacDonald · Wrist, 0.49 xG1–2
- P1 12:59NYIBlake ComeauPPAssists: Milan Jurcina, Jack Hillen · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 3:17NYIJeremy CollitonPPAssists: Josh Bailey, Blake Comeau · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 19:56COLMilan HejdukAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Kevin Shattenkirk · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–3
- OT 3:52NYIJohn TavaresGWGAssists: Jack Hillen, Matt Moulson · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:04COLDavid Jones: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 6:02NYIMilan Jurcina: High sticking2 min
- P1 6:06COLDavid Jones: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:15COLMatt Hunwick: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 13:59NYITravis Hamonic: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:19COLRyan O'Reilly: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 7:14NYIMatt Moulson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schremp won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestKonopka – Joensuu – Martin7:35
xG 0.32–0.09 (77%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Schremp – Comeau – Bailey10:34
xG 0.15–0.10 (61%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares10:23
xG 0.79–0.74 (52%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
- Sim – Colliton – Grabner6:56
xG 0.14–0.23 (37%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJurcina – Hillen14:17
xG 1.02–0.57 (64%)attempts 16–17goals 0–1
- Gervais – Reese7:04
xG 0.18–0.11 (61%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- MacDonald – Hamonic18:14
xG 0.15–1.23 (11%)attempts 8–25goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestWinnik – Galiardi – O'Reilly4:01
xG 0.95–0.08 (93%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Koci – Dupuis – Porter3:36
xG 0.28–0.01 (95%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Hejduk – Stastny – Galiardi6:13
xG 0.19–0.05 (78%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Hejduk – Fleischmann – Duchene3:01
xG 0.11–0.07 (61%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – O'Byrne11:05
xG 1.58–0.08 (95%)attempts 23–5goals 1–0
- Foote – Wilson10:59
xG 0.40–0.39 (51%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- O'Byrne – Hunwick3:32
xG 0.02–0.19 (9%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).