Sat, Jan 8, 2011·Centre Bell, Montreal
Boston Bruins 2, Montréal Canadiens 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 011 | 210 | 08 | 00 | 229 |
| MTL | 012 | 07 | 218 | 15 | 342 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:18BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Blake Wheeler, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 12:27BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Mark Recchi, Zdeno Chara · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–0
- P3 17:38MTLScott GomezPPAssists: Mathieu Darche · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–1
- P3 19:12MTLBrian GiontaAssists: James Wisniewski, Max Pacioretty · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–2
- OT 3:43MTLMax PaciorettyGWGAssists: P.K. Subban, Hal Gill · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:03MTLTomas Plekanec: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:47MTLTravis Moen: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:47BOSAdam McQuaid: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:18MTLTomas Plekanec: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:30BOSBlake Wheeler: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:35MTLJeff Halpern: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:32BOSMichael Ryder: Tripping2 min · PPG
- OT 0:10BOSBlake Wheeler: Hooking2 min
- OT 3:43MTLHal Gill: Misconduct10 min
- OT 3:43BOSZdeno Chara: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Desharnais won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestRecchi – Bergeron – Marchand11:34
xG 0.51–0.31 (62%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Savard – Ryder – Lucic11:19
xG 0.43–0.26 (63%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Krejci – Seguin9:48
xG 0.57–0.46 (55%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille10:37
xG 0.38–0.36 (51%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Ference8:41
xG 0.43–0.18 (70%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Seidenberg – Kampfer6:05
xG 0.16–0.12 (57%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Chara – Kampfer8:05
xG 0.44–0.42 (52%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGomez – Darche – Pouliot4:47
xG 0.88–0.00 (100%)attempts 18–0goals 0–0
- Gomez – Gionta – Pacioretty8:37
xG 0.42–0.06 (88%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Plekanec – Kostitsyn – Pouliot2:00
xG 0.21–0.00 (98%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Halpern – Moen – Pyatt6:51
xG 0.06–0.04 (59%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamrlik – Wisniewski6:04
xG 0.81–0.27 (75%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Hamrlik – Spacek10:26
xG 0.62–0.44 (58%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Spacek – Wisniewski2:41
xG 0.06–0.07 (48%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).