Sat, Jan 8, 2011·Verizon Center, Washington
Florida Panthers 2, Washington Capitals 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 16 | 09 | 112 | 227 |
| WSH | 05 | 112 | 210 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:49FLAMike SantorelliAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, David Booth · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 5:32WSHEric FehrAssists: Mike Green, Mathieu Perreault · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P3 13:07WSHMike GreenPPAssists: Eric Fehr, Alex Ovechkin · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 16:05WSHAlex OvechkinGWGAssists: Mike Knuble, Nicklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.16 xG1–3
- P3 18:23FLAEvgenii DadonovAssists: David Booth, Stephen Weiss · Backhand, 0.26 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:14FLACory Stillman: Hooking2 min
- P1 4:26WSHMathieu Perreault: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:13FLAMarty Reasoner: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 6:50WSHBrooks Laich: Interference2 min
- P3 10:01WSHMike Knuble: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:45FLAMichael Frolik: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 18:55WSHNicklas Backstrom: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Steckel won the faceoff against Weiss
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Weiss – Booth – Frolik9:53
xG 0.22–0.21 (52%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Olesz – Booth – Matthias3:39
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Bernier – Santorelli – Dadonov8:38
xG 0.34–0.50 (40%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Stillman – Dvorak – Reasoner12:51
xG 0.15–0.32 (32%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAllen – Wideman12:10
xG 0.57–0.33 (64%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- McCabe – Kulikov16:04
xG 0.68–0.53 (56%)attempts 14–14goals 1–1
- Weaver – Garrison14:55
xG 0.17–0.78 (18%)attempts 7–16goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestKnuble – Ovechkin – Backstrom7:20
xG 0.66–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Chimera – Fehr – Perreault9:06
xG 0.46–0.34 (58%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Laich – Semin – Johansson3:03
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Laich – Ovechkin – Johansson4:28
xG 0.11–0.15 (42%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Green16:54
xG 0.72–0.27 (73%)attempts 22–9goals 0–0
- Alzner – Carlson13:54
xG 0.71–0.48 (60%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Poti – Schultz12:14
xG 0.12–0.45 (21%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).