Sun, Jan 9, 2011·Prudential Center, Newark
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, New Jersey Devils 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 213 | 013 | 110 | 336 |
| NJD | 15 | 011 | 510 | 626 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:36TBLTeddy PurcellAssists: Mattias Ritola, Steve Downie · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 5:55NJDDavid ClarksonAssists: Tim Sestito, Rod Pelley · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 16:01TBLRyan MalonePPAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Martin St. Louis · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 4:14NJDDavid ClarksonPPAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Patrik Elias · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 7:52NJDJason ArnottAssists: Henrik Tallinder, Vladimir Zharkov · Deflected, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 14:06NJDDainius ZubrusGWGAssists: Brian Rolston, Patrik Elias · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 18:45NJDPatrik EliasENAssists: Brian Rolston · Wrist, 0.67 xG2–5
- P3 19:08TBLDominic MooreAssists: Adam Hall, Mattias Ohlund · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–5
- P3 19:46NJDNick PalmieriENAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Martin Brodeur · Slap, 0.66 xG3–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:14TBLPavel Kubina: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:13NJDHenrik Tallinder: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:21TBLMattias Ritola: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:15NJDDainius Zubrus: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:46TBLDominic Moore: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:22NJDAndy Greene: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 7:43TBLSteven Stamkos: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hall won the faceoff against Sestito
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestHall – Moore – Tyrell8:30
xG 0.69–0.10 (87%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Lecavalier – Gagne – Thompson8:21
xG 0.15–0.07 (68%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Malone – Stamkos6:58
xG 0.15–0.12 (55%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Ritola – Downie – Purcell5:38
xG 0.26–0.24 (52%)attempts 5–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestClark – Hedman13:18
xG 0.83–0.37 (69%)attempts 16–8goals 1–1
- Kubina – Jones13:26
xG 0.60–0.23 (72%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Ohlund – Lundin11:16
xG 0.11–0.06 (63%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestRolston – Elias – Zubrus9:39
xG 0.28–0.21 (57%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Arnott – Kovalchuk – Palmieri2:22
xG 0.09–0.03 (74%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Zajac – Zharkov10:18
xG 0.13–0.35 (27%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Clarkson – Sestito – Pelley10:46
xG 0.40–0.62 (39%)attempts 7–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestWhite – Greene5:42
xG 0.13–0.02 (85%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Tallinder – Greene2:13
xG 0.08–0.04 (68%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Tallinder – Corrente4:13
xG 0.20–0.18 (52%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).