Sun, Jan 9, 2011·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Dallas Stars 4, Minnesota Wild 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 210 | 09 | 29 | 428 |
| MIN | 011 | 05 | 010 | 026 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:33DALTrevor DaleyGWGAssists: Brad Richards, Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 19:11DALJamie BennAssists: Nicklas Grossmann, Brenden Morrow · Snap, 0.07 xG2–0
- P3 9:52DALJames NealAssists: Brad Richards, Trevor Daley · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–0
- P3 14:28DALJamie BennAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Brenden Morrow · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–0
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:57MINCal Clutterbuck: Interference2 min
- P1 6:46DALAdam Burish: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 7:46DALTrevor Daley: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:18MINPierre-Marc Bouchard: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:29MINClayton Stoner: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Madden won the faceoff against Ott
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestLangenbrunner – Ott – Burish10:49
xG 0.37–0.08 (82%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Benn10:21
xG 0.44–0.19 (70%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- Richards – Eriksson – Neal12:28
xG 0.59–0.56 (51%)attempts 13–11goals 2–0
- Barch – Sutherby – Wandell6:04
xG 0.05–0.07 (40%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWoywitka – Daley19:02
xG 0.51–0.31 (62%)attempts 11–17goals 1–0
- Robidas – Grossmann14:57
xG 0.42–0.23 (65%)attempts 13–10goals 2–0
- Daley – Larsen2:07
xG 0.14–0.06 (71%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCullen – O'Sullivan – Clutterbuck8:41
xG 0.48–0.35 (58%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Havlat – Bouchard – Brodziak10:13
xG 0.31–0.23 (57%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Madden – Havlat – Nystrom3:06
xG 0.04–0.05 (45%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Madden – Nystrom – Clutterbuck4:32
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Schultz – Burns16:44
xG 0.30–0.32 (48%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Zanon – Stoner14:21
xG 0.51–0.55 (48%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Barker – Scandella12:09
xG 0.23–0.74 (24%)attempts 12–11goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).