Mon, Jan 10, 2011·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Boston Bruins 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 06 | 013 | 413 | 432 |
| PIT | 014 | 29 | 02 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:39PITMike RuppAssists: Deryk Engelland · Backhand, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 15:12PITKris LetangPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Paul Martin · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P3 16:37BOSZdeno CharaPPAssists: Dennis Seidenberg, Gregory Campbell · Slap, 0.01 xG1–2
- P3 16:49BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Gregory Campbell · Wrist, 0.44 xG2–2
- P3 19:10BOSMark RecchiPPGWGAssists: Michael Ryder, Dennis Seidenberg · Backhand, 0.19 xG3–2
- P3 19:52BOSGregory CampbellENAssists: Blake Wheeler, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.64 xG4–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 11:36PITDustin Jeffrey: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:05PITMatt Cooke: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:41BOSMarc Savard: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:35BOSPatrice Bergeron: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 13:50BOSMark Recchi: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:07BOSMarc Savard: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:07PITKris Letang: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:08BOSMark Recchi: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:08BOSMark Recchi: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 19:17PITAlex Goligoski: Interference2 min
- P3 11:46BOSMatt Bartkowski: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:39PITBrooks Orpik: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 17:52PITJordan Staal: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestSavard – Ryder – Lucic8:24
xG 0.55–0.31 (64%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Recchi – Bergeron – Marchand7:38
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille6:12
xG 0.07–0.08 (45%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Wheeler – Krejci – Seguin9:29
xG 0.41–0.54 (43%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – Boychuk11:09
xG 0.38–0.07 (85%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Chara – Kampfer10:29
xG 0.37–0.21 (64%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Chara – Ference2:38
xG 0.05–0.30 (15%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestRupp – Talbot – Conner7:43
xG 0.41–0.13 (77%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Cooke – Kennedy – Staal7:29
xG 0.28–0.33 (46%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Rupp – Conner – Letestu2:00
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Malkin4:14
xG 0.17–0.54 (23%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Goligoski9:41
xG 0.33–0.24 (58%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Letang3:17
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Martin – Michalek9:41
xG 0.48–0.62 (44%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).