Mon, Jan 10, 2011·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Los Angeles Kings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 05 | 212 | 111 | 328 |
| LAK | 18 | 17 | 017 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:18LAKWayne SimmondsAssists: Rob Scuderi, Jarret Stoll · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 2:27TORDarryl BoyceAssists: Colby Armstrong, Kris Versteeg · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 3:01TORPhil KesselAssists: Joey Crabb, Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 14:53LAKMichal HandzusAssists: Alec Martinez, Ryan Smyth · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–2
- P3 4:58TORNikolay KuleminGWGAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Clarke MacArthur · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:02TORMike Komisarek: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 18:11TORMikhail Grabovski: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:44TORTim Brent: Kneeing2 min
- P3 2:44TORTim Brent: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:44LAKMarco Sturm: Instigator2 min
- P3 2:44LAKMarco Sturm: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:44LAKMarco Sturm: Misconduct10 min
- P3 6:07LAKJarret Stoll: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:18TORDion Phaneuf: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Handzus won the faceoff against Boyce
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin13:06
xG 0.90–0.33 (73%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Orr – Sjostrom – Brent4:12
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Crabb – Kessel – Bozak13:40
xG 0.67–0.83 (45%)attempts 10–19goals 1–1
- Armstrong – Boyce – Versteeg11:26
xG 0.24–0.75 (25%)attempts 4–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKaberle – Schenn17:54
xG 1.34–0.64 (68%)attempts 17–18goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Phaneuf18:04
xG 0.61–0.53 (53%)attempts 13–13goals 2–1
- Beauchemin – Komisarek2:38
xG 0.05–0.31 (13%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestSmyth – Handzus – Williams12:53
xG 0.52–0.10 (83%)attempts 13–3goals 1–1
- Sturm – Stoll – Simmonds7:35
xG 0.70–0.33 (68%)attempts 10–4goals 1–1
- Ponikarovsky – Brown – Kopitar9:26
xG 0.26–0.33 (44%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Clifford6:40
xG 0.23–0.42 (36%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Doughty14:21
xG 0.89–0.63 (59%)attempts 20–9goals 1–1
- Greene – Martinez8:43
xG 0.50–0.26 (66%)attempts 6–3goals 1–1
- Martinez – Doughty3:04
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).