Tue, Jan 11, 2011·TD Garden, Boston
Ottawa Senators 0, Boston Bruins 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 09 | 013 | 09 | 031 |
| BOS | 210 | 317 | 112 | 639 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:33BOSPatrice BergeronGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 9:47BOSBlake WheelerAssists: Tyler Seguin, David Krejci · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 2:50BOSPatrice BergeronUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–3
- P2 14:07BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Dennis Seidenberg · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–4
- P2 15:26BOSTyler SeguinAssists: David Krejci, Zdeno Chara · Snap, 0.02 xG0–5
- P3 5:04BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Brad Marchand · Snap, 0.04 xG0–6
Penalties (12)
- P1 17:40BOSTyler Seguin: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:46BOSAdam McQuaid: Interference2 min
- P2 3:23BOSNathan Horton: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:23OTTJesse Winchester: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:46BOSAndrew Ference: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:26OTTMatt Carkner: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:26BOSShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:58OTTJarkko Ruutu: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:50OTTMatt Carkner: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:50OTTMatt Carkner: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:50BOSDaniel Paille: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:52OTTMike Fisher: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRegin – Foligno – O'Brien3:22
xG 0.31–0.05 (87%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Fisher – Michalek – Shannon5:46
xG 0.21–0.11 (66%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Smith – Winchester4:01
xG 0.21–0.19 (52%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Shannon – Smith – Winchester4:01
xG 0.07–0.11 (40%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKuba – Carkner6:53
xG 0.33–0.05 (87%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Campoli12:02
xG 0.71–0.69 (51%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
- Kuba – Campoli4:31
xG 0.23–0.24 (50%)attempts 2–3goals 0–3
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestSavard – Ryder – Horton12:47
xG 0.93–0.60 (61%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Krejci – Seguin8:31
xG 0.44–0.23 (65%)attempts 7–7goals 2–0
- Recchi – Bergeron – Marchand7:54
xG 0.39–0.24 (62%)attempts 9–8goals 3–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille6:51
xG 0.14–0.28 (33%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Kampfer11:41
xG 0.77–0.21 (78%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Ference – McQuaid12:46
xG 0.63–0.40 (61%)attempts 7–15goals 3–0
- Ference – Kampfer2:19
xG 0.13–0.01 (91%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).