Tue, Jan 11, 2011·RBC Center, Raleigh
Calgary Flames 5, Carolina Hurricanes 6 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 212 | 18 | 212 | 00 | 0 | 532 |
| CAR | 26 | 311 | 09 | 04 | 1 | 630 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:13CGYJay BouwmeesterAssists: Jarome Iginla, Olli Jokinen · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 11:46CARTuomo RuutuAssists: Chad LaRose, Jeff Skinner · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 13:06CGYJarome IginlaAssists: Alex Tanguay, Olli Jokinen · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–1
- P1 16:29CARJussi JokinenAssists: Brandon Sutter · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- P2 2:16CARErik ColeAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Sergei Samsonov · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–3
- P2 5:37CAREric StaalAssists: Ian White, Cam Ward · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–4
- P2 14:50CARJussi JokinenAssists: Tim Gleason, Patrick Dwyer · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–5
- P2 16:48CGYNiklas HagmanUnassisted · Slap, 0.08 xG3–5
- P3 1:31CGYCurtis GlencrossAssists: Niklas Hagman, Robyn Regehr · Snap, 0.07 xG4–5
- P3 7:39CGYRene BourqueAssists: Brendan Morrison, Tim Jackman · Wrist, 0.19 xG5–5
Shootout
- 1. CAR Jussi Jokinen stopped
- 2. CGY Alex Tanguay stopped
- 3. CAR Jeff Skinner scored
- 4. CGY Ales Kotalik stopped
- 5. CAR Tuomo Ruutu stopped
- 6. CGY Niklas Hagman stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:30CGYAdam Pardy: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:40CGYCory Sarich: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:08CGYBrendan Morrison: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:32CGYAles Kotalik: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:32CARJay Harrison: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:52CGYCory Sarich: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:52CARChad LaRose: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:37CARJeff Skinner: Boarding2 min
- OT 2:38CGYRene Bourque: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Jokinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Jokinen – Tanguay13:26
xG 1.03–0.64 (62%)attempts 17–15goals 2–1
- Hagman – Stajan – Glencross9:14
xG 0.57–0.39 (60%)attempts 13–8goals 2–0
- Kotalik – Jackman – Backlund4:47
xG 0.33–0.15 (69%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Morrison – Moss – Bourque8:03
xG 0.15–0.12 (56%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRegehr – Bouwmeester15:12
xG 1.56–0.74 (68%)attempts 18–16goals 2–1
- Sarich – Giordano17:54
xG 0.80–0.71 (53%)attempts 23–23goals 1–2
- Sarich – Regehr2:36
xG 0.01–0.03 (27%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Dwyer – Sutter9:21
xG 0.46–0.26 (63%)attempts 12–14goals 2–0
- Samsonov – Bodie – Dalpe3:04
xG 0.06–0.10 (37%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Ruutu – LaRose – Skinner13:16
xG 0.41–0.46 (47%)attempts 13–18goals 1–2
- Cole – Staal – Boychuk8:55
xG 0.39–1.26 (23%)attempts 10–14goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestPitkanen – White7:57
xG 0.35–0.17 (67%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Corvo – Gleason17:03
xG 0.89–0.72 (55%)attempts 23–17goals 2–0
- Harrison – White8:59
xG 0.37–0.84 (30%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).