Tue, Jan 11, 2011·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Phoenix Coyotes 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 011 | 211 | 26 | 428 |
| CBJ | 211 | 115 | 014 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:56CBJJared BollAssists: Marc Methot · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 5:54CBJRostislav KleslaAssists: Fedor Tyutin, Rick Nash · Slap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 2:14PHXVernon FiddlerSHAssists: Lauri Korpikoski · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 3:14CBJKristian HuseliusPPAssists: Fedor Tyutin · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 3:41PHXEric BelangerAssists: Shane Doan, Keith Yandle · Tip-in, 0.28 xG2–3
- P3 0:36PHXRadim VrbataAssists: Ray Whitney, Martin Hanzal · Snap, 0.16 xG3–3
- P3 10:44PHXDerek MorrisGWGAssists: Scottie Upshall, Martin Hanzal · Slap, 0.02 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 10:31CBJJakub Voracek: Holding2 min
- P2 0:10CBJDerek Dorsett: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:23PHXMartin Hanzal: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:35CBJRostislav Klesla: Holding2 min
- P3 2:05PHXDerek Morris: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:15PHXEd Jovanovski: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:38CBJDerek Dorsett: Interference2 min
- P3 17:05PHXDerek Morris: Holding2 min
- P3 19:17PHXAdrian Aucoin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against Vermette
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Belanger – Upshall5:09
xG 0.63–0.27 (70%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Whitney – Vrbata – Hanzal4:58
xG 0.21–0.08 (73%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Upshall – Hanzal5:31
xG 0.21–0.09 (70%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Pyatt – Fiddler – Korpikoski2:08
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Lepisto – Ekman-Larsson7:59
xG 0.04–0.19 (17%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Aucoin – Jovanovski15:21
xG 0.29–1.08 (21%)attempts 14–19goals 0–1
- Morris – Yandle15:04
xG 0.04–1.04 (4%)attempts 6–18goals 1–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHuselius – Vermette – Umberger10:11
xG 0.92–0.11 (90%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Nash – Brassard – Voracek10:21
xG 0.82–0.11 (88%)attempts 17–3goals 1–0
- Clark – Pahlsson – Dorsett10:44
xG 0.10–0.12 (45%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Wilson – Boll – Calvert6:08
xG 0.33–0.75 (31%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlesla – Tyutin14:03
xG 1.13–0.13 (89%)attempts 20–7goals 1–0
- Clitsome – Russell13:21
xG 0.57–0.04 (94%)attempts 17–4goals 0–1
- Hejda – Methot14:08
xG 0.50–0.94 (35%)attempts 7–20goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).