Tue, Jan 11, 2011·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Washington Capitals 3, Florida Panthers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 07 | 218 | 18 | 00 | 333 |
| FLA | 220 | 110 | 07 | 14 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:52FLAMike SantorelliPPAssists: Stephen Weiss, Dennis Wideman · Tip-in, 0.42 xG0–1
- P1 12:14FLAMarty ReasonerAssists: Bryan McCabe, Radek Dvorak · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 6:48FLADavid BoothPPAssists: Stephen Weiss, Cory Stillman · Backhand, 0.56 xG0–3
- P2 10:10WSHMarcus JohanssonAssists: Brooks Laich, Brian Willsie · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–3
- P2 13:30WSHMike KnubleAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 7:12WSHMarcus JohanssonAssists: Matt Hendricks, Mike Green · Tip-in, 0.38 xG3–3
- OT 2:51FLADennis WidemanPPGWGAssists: Stephen Weiss, Cory Stillman · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 3:54FLARadek Dvorak: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:33WSHNicklas Backstrom: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 8:33WSHMike Knuble: Interference2 min
- P1 19:13FLABryan Allen: Holding2 min
- P2 1:04FLAMike Weaver: Boarding2 min
- P2 5:07WSHJason Chimera: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 6:18WSHJohn Carlson: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:19FLAMichael Frolik: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:25FLAEvgenii Dadonov: Holding2 min
- P3 12:31FLAEvgenii Dadonov: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:31WSHJay Beagle: Tripping2 min
- OT 0:57WSHMike Green: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Steckel won the faceoff against Santorelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestHendricks – Beagle – Johansson2:30
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Chimera – Laich – Fehr3:17
xG 0.07–0.05 (59%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Steckel – Beagle7:53
xG 0.12–0.12 (49%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Chimera – Fehr – Perreault5:04
xG 0.16–0.23 (41%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hannan – Green12:38
xG 0.50–0.67 (42%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Erskine – Schultz12:09
xG 0.25–0.58 (30%)attempts 7–21goals 0–1
- Alzner – Carlson10:21
xG 0.12–0.46 (21%)attempts 4–10goals 1–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestStillman – Dvorak – Reasoner8:55
xG 0.40–0.19 (67%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Weiss – Frolik – Dadonov9:18
xG 0.44–0.26 (63%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Bernier – Booth – Matthias3:33
xG 0.35–0.17 (68%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Olesz – Booth – Santorelli7:23
xG 0.27–0.17 (62%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Kulikov14:08
xG 0.81–0.54 (60%)attempts 22–12goals 1–0
- Allen – Wideman10:55
xG 0.32–0.16 (66%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
- Weaver – Garrison12:02
xG 0.69–0.89 (44%)attempts 10–12goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).