Tue, Jan 11, 2011·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Minnesota Wild 1, Nashville Predators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 19 | 012 | 05 | 126 |
| NSH | 16 | 110 | 314 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:03NSHDavid LegwandAssists: Marek Svatos, Francis Bouillon · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 16:05MINMikko KoivuAssists: John Madden · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 1:02NSHJoel WardGWGAssists: Kevin Klein, Marcel Goc · Backhand, 0.32 xG1–2
- P3 4:18NSHNick SpalingUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–3
- P3 10:39NSHNick SpalingAssists: Shea Weber, Joel Ward · Tip-in, 0.26 xG1–4
- P3 12:53NSHMarcel GocUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:50NSHJerred Smithson: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:04MINCam Barker: Holding2 min
- P2 4:06MINGreg Zanon: Interference2 min
- P2 10:55NSHJerred Smithson: Boarding2 min
- P2 13:48NSHCody Franson: Delaying game2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Goc won the faceoff against Brodziak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCullen – O'Sullivan – Clutterbuck9:08
xG 0.33–0.22 (60%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Havlat – Bouchard – Brodziak10:42
xG 0.22–0.52 (29%)attempts 9–5goals 0–2
- Madden – Kobasew – Nystrom8:44
xG 0.05–0.42 (10%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
- Brunette – Miettinen – Koivu10:27
xG 0.16–1.06 (13%)attempts 4–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Schultz – Barker3:15
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Burns – Scandella2:18
xG 0.12–0.17 (42%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
- Barker – Scandella11:28
xG 0.38–0.61 (38%)attempts 12–8goals 0–2
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSmithson – Ward – Spaling11:56
xG 1.14–0.12 (91%)attempts 11–5goals 2–0
- Dumont – Thuresson – Mueller7:02
xG 0.62–0.09 (88%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Goc – Kostitsyn – Hornqvist13:25
xG 0.48–0.24 (67%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Legwand – Svatos – Wilson10:22
xG 0.15–0.14 (51%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Weber15:20
xG 1.47–0.18 (89%)attempts 12–8goals 2–0
- Bouillon – Klein16:35
xG 0.74–0.22 (77%)attempts 12–8goals 3–0
- O'Brien – Franson11:07
xG 0.31–0.29 (52%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).