Tue, Jan 11, 2011·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 08 | 012 | 46 | 426 |
| SJS | 113 | 021 | 18 | 242 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:12SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Joe Thornton, Jason Demers · Slap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P3 3:27TORPhil KesselAssists: Tyler Bozak, Joey Crabb · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 7:30TORClarke MacArthurPPAssists: Tomas Kaberle, Nikolay Kulemin · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 8:35SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.39 xG2–2
- P3 10:10TORCarl GunnarssonGWGAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Colby Armstrong · Tip-in, 0.17 xG3–2
- P3 19:21TORClarke MacArthurENAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Nikolay Kulemin · Backhand, 0.69 xG4–2
Penalties (8)
- P2 1:54SJSScott Nichol: Holding2 min
- P2 9:25TORColton Orr: Kneeing2 min
- P2 11:15TORDion Phaneuf: Holding2 min
- P2 11:48SJSDan Boyle: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:28TORPhil Kessel: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:46TORFrancois Beauchemin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:15SJSDany Heatley: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:12SJSNiclas Wallin: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mitchell won the faceoff against Boyce
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestCrabb – Kessel – Bozak12:53
xG 0.64–0.39 (62%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin12:33
xG 0.37–0.33 (52%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Orr – Sjostrom – Brent2:59
xG 0.02–0.29 (6%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Armstrong – Boyce – Versteeg12:30
xG 0.31–1.27 (19%)attempts 4–15goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- Komisarek – Gunnarsson10:04
xG 0.27–0.55 (33%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Kaberle – Schenn14:24
xG 0.30–0.63 (32%)attempts 7–15goals 1–1
- Beauchemin – Phaneuf18:17
xG 0.20–1.41 (12%)attempts 6–26goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Marleau – Setoguchi12:50
xG 1.45–0.19 (89%)attempts 25–2goals 2–1
- Heatley – Clowe – Couture7:54
xG 0.33–0.12 (73%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Mayers – Nichol – Ferriero2:17
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Mayers – Mitchell – Ferriero3:21
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHuskins – Wallin8:45
xG 0.79–0.05 (94%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Murray – Braun2:44
xG 0.21–0.03 (86%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Wallin – Braun4:51
xG 0.23–0.09 (72%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).