Wed, Jan 12, 2011·Centre Bell, Montreal
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 19 | 214 | 213 | 536 |
| MTL | 16 | 19 | 07 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:57PITAlex GoligoskiAssists: Chris Kunitz, Mark Letestu · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 13:15MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Mathieu Darche, Benoit Pouliot · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 2:15MTLDavid DesharnaisAssists: P.K. Subban, Tom Pyatt · Deflected, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 4:12PITTyler KennedyPPAssists: Kris Letang, Jordan Staal · Snap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 19:49PITJordan StaalPPGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 2:33PITAlex GoligoskiPPAssists: Jordan Staal, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.48 xG4–2
- P3 11:29PITChris KunitzPPAssists: Kris Letang, Alex Goligoski · Slap, 0.01 xG5–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 0:39PITAlex Goligoski: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:42PITKris Letang: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:04MTLBenoit Pouliot: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:59MTLJames Wisniewski: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:20MTLMax Pacioretty: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 1:11MTLBenoit Pouliot: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:40MTLBenoit Pouliot: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:50MTLP.K. Subban: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 6:50PITMark Letestu: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:09MTLJames Wisniewski: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:26MTLScott Gomez: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:26PITBrooks Orpik: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:57PITAlex Goligoski: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Gomez
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCooke – Kennedy – Staal6:11
xG 0.29–0.05 (85%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Rupp – Talbot – Conner5:17
xG 0.30–0.10 (75%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Adams – Conner – Staal2:04
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Malkin7:02
xG 0.33–0.45 (43%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Letang3:35
xG 0.15–0.02 (87%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Orpik – Letang9:16
xG 0.23–0.27 (46%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Engelland – Goligoski8:20
xG 0.14–0.35 (29%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDarche – Plekanec – Pouliot7:04
xG 0.57–0.22 (72%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Halpern – Moen – Kostitsyn6:05
xG 0.27–0.07 (80%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Desharnais – Eller10:19
xG 0.30–0.39 (43%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Gomez – Gionta – Pacioretty9:29
xG 0.04–0.34 (11%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGill – Wisniewski2:07
xG 0.34–0.01 (96%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Hamrlik – Wisniewski15:02
xG 0.40–0.42 (49%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Gill – Subban9:18
xG 0.38–0.43 (47%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).