Wed, Jan 12, 2011·Honda Center, Anaheim
St. Louis Blues 4, Anaheim Ducks 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 06 | 216 | 212 | 434 |
| ANA | 38 | 07 | 49 | 724 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:31ANABobby RyanPPAssists: Joffrey Lupul, Lubomir Visnovsky · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 7:21ANAJason BlakeAssists: Saku Koivu, Teemu Selanne · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P1 18:17ANABobby RyanAssists: Corey Perry, Lubomir Visnovsky · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–3
- P2 3:44STLDavid BackesAssists: Vladimir Sobotka, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 6:15STLDavid BackesAssists: Vladimir Sobotka, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 0:30ANABobby RyanAssists: Andreas Lilja, Cam Fowler · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 6:17ANACorey PerryGWGAssists: Matt Beleskey, Bobby Ryan · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG2–5
- P3 13:20ANALubomir VisnovskyPPAssists: Cam Fowler, Teemu Selanne · Slap, 0.06 xG2–6
- P3 15:16ANABrandon McMillanPPAssists: Andy Sutton, Todd Marchant · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–7
- P3 16:20STLRyan ReavesAssists: Matt D'Agostini · Wrist, 0.32 xG3–7
- P3 17:58STLBrad BoyesPPAssists: Matt D'Agostini, Alexander Steen · Slap, 0.02 xG4–7
Penalties (19)
- P1 1:51STLPhilip McRae: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 9:24ANAAndreas Lilja: Holding2 min
- P1 18:52ANABobby Ryan: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:34STLBrad Winchester: Elbowing2 min
- P3 1:06ANATeemu Selanne: Interference2 min
- P3 13:00STLB.J. Crombeen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 13:47STLBarret Jackman: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 13:47ANAGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 13:50STLB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:50ANAMaxim Lapierre: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:05STLEric Brewer: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:05ANALuca Sbisa: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:05STLBrad Winchester: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:05ANAJoffrey Lupul: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:05STLBrad Winchester: Kneeing2 min
- P3 17:22STLVladimir Sobotka: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:22ANAMatt Beleskey: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:22ANAMatt Beleskey: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:44ANATodd Marchant: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Berglund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestCrombeen – Porter – Reaves2:29
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Boyes – Winchester – McClement7:17
xG 0.14–0.04 (77%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- McClement – Porter – Reaves2:21
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Steen – Crombeen – Berglund5:56
xG 0.20–0.20 (51%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Pietrangelo4:04
xG 0.63–0.08 (89%)attempts 8–2goals 2–0
- Brewer – Johnson9:30
xG 0.42–0.24 (64%)attempts 14–4goals 1–1
- Jackman – Polak6:28
xG 0.19–0.11 (63%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSelanne – Koivu – Blake10:44
xG 0.68–0.41 (62%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Marchant – Parros – Sexton4:50
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Lupul – Lapierre – McMillan7:51
xG 0.16–0.35 (32%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Perry – Ryan – Beleskey10:56
xG 0.66–1.09 (38%)attempts 15–16goals 3–2
Defence pairs
- bestLydman – Visnovsky13:01
xG 0.79–0.52 (60%)attempts 14–12goals 3–0
- Lilja – Fowler15:35
xG 0.46–0.50 (48%)attempts 11–19goals 1–1
- Sutton – Sbisa9:38
xG 0.10–0.52 (16%)attempts 3–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).