Thu, Jan 13, 2011·TD Garden, Boston
Philadelphia Flyers 5, Boston Bruins 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 112 | 212 | 211 | 535 |
| BOS | 112 | 110 | 515 | 737 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:34PHIScott HartnellAssists: Ville Leino, Daniel Brière · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–0
- P1 18:16BOSZdeno CharaPPAssists: Marc Savard, David Krejci · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 0:45BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Steven Kampfer, Mark Recchi · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 15:25PHINikolay ZherdevAssists: Andreas Nodl · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 19:24PHIJeff CarterAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Kimmo Timonen · Snap, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 0:38BOSMark RecchiAssists: Zdeno Chara, Tim Thomas · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–3
- P3 1:48BOSMichael RyderAssists: Adam McQuaid, Nathan Horton · Tip-in, 0.05 xG3–4
- P3 6:48PHIDaniel BrièreAssists: Braydon Coburn, Ville Leino · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–4
- P3 7:41PHISean O'DonnellAssists: Mike Richards, Nikolay Zherdev · Snap, 0.07 xG5–4
- P3 11:26BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Gregory Campbell, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–5
- P3 18:46BOSSteven KampferGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG5–6
- P3 19:53BOSGregory CampbellAssists: Blake Wheeler, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.16 xG5–7
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:35PHIJody Shelley: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:35BOSShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:53BOSTyler Seguin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 13:24PHIMike Richards: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:46PHIScott Hartnell: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:42PHIBraydon Coburn: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:56PHIDaniel Brière: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:26PHIMike Richards: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brière won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestZherdev – Richards – Nodl10:20
xG 1.36–0.16 (89%)attempts 15–7goals 2–0
- Brière – Hartnell – Leino11:41
xG 1.05–0.44 (70%)attempts 16–13goals 2–2
- Carter – Giroux – van Riemsdyk10:10
xG 0.38–0.33 (53%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
- Shelley – Betts – Powe3:58
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Coburn15:23
xG 1.84–0.35 (84%)attempts 18–16goals 4–1
- Carle – Meszaros2:48
xG 0.15–0.01 (93%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
- O'Donnell – Meszaros11:33
xG 0.69–0.56 (55%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestRecchi – Bergeron – Marchand10:57
xG 0.64–0.52 (55%)attempts 12–10goals 3–1
- Wheeler – Krejci – Seguin11:40
xG 0.24–0.44 (35%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille5:21
xG 0.14–0.39 (26%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Savard – Ryder – Horton11:19
xG 0.28–1.36 (17%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Chara – Kampfer12:02
xG 0.60–0.55 (52%)attempts 13–11goals 3–2
- Ference – McQuaid7:39
xG 0.20–0.22 (47%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Boychuk17:49
xG 0.39–0.48 (45%)attempts 16–14goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).