Thu, Jan 13, 2011·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Nashville Predators 2, Florida Panthers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 110 | 07 | 112 | 229 |
| FLA | 113 | 011 | 210 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:22FLARadek DvorakAssists: Marty Reasoner, Cory Stillman · Slap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 10:50NSHColin WilsonAssists: David Legwand, Marek Svatos · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P3 10:02NSHDavid LegwandAssists: Shea Weber, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 13:34FLARostislav OleszAssists: Mike Santorelli, Bryan McCabe · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–2
- P3 15:48FLADavid BoothGWGAssists: Rostislav Olesz, Mike Weaver · Snap, 0.06 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 19:25NSHRyan Suter: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:12NSHShane O'Brien: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:03FLAStephen Weiss: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:03NSHJoel Ward: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:44FLARadek Dvorak: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:29FLADmitry Kulikov: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Goc won the faceoff against Reasoner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Belak – Dumont – Mueller3:02
xG 0.12–0.07 (62%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Goc – Kostitsyn – Hornqvist13:34
xG 0.39–0.48 (45%)attempts 11–14goals 0–2
- Smithson – Ward – Spaling9:13
xG 0.19–0.32 (37%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Legwand – Svatos – Wilson10:02
xG 0.48–0.70 (40%)attempts 12–11goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Weber19:53
xG 0.67–0.56 (54%)attempts 17–17goals 2–0
- Bouillon – Klein13:12
xG 0.22–0.43 (34%)attempts 7–11goals 0–2
- O'Brien – Franson9:25
xG 0.18–0.47 (28%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestWeiss – Frolik – Dadonov11:55
xG 0.66–0.26 (72%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Olesz – Booth – Santorelli9:01
xG 0.62–0.23 (73%)attempts 13–8goals 2–0
- Bernier – Booth – Matthias3:21
xG 0.19–0.03 (86%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Stillman – Dvorak – Reasoner12:56
xG 0.17–0.24 (41%)attempts 4–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Garrison12:11
xG 0.66–0.20 (76%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- McCabe – Kulikov12:25
xG 0.56–0.53 (51%)attempts 12–12goals 1–2
- McCabe – Wideman2:02
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).