Thu, Jan 13, 2011·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Phoenix Coyotes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 012 | 05 | 112 | 129 |
| PHX | 14 | 08 | 49 | 521 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:05PHXRadim VrbataPPAssists: Ray Whitney, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P3 1:39PHXShane DoanPPGWGAssists: Keith Yandle, Ray Whitney · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P3 4:52PHXTaylor PyattAssists: Keith Yandle, Lauri Korpikoski · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–3
- P3 9:43PHXLauri KorpikoskiAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–4
- P3 16:08TORColby ArmstrongAssists: Mike Brown, Darryl Boyce · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–4
- P3 19:19PHXKeith YandleENAssists: Scottie Upshall · Wrist, 0.65 xG1–5
Penalties (16)
- P1 0:49TORNikolay Kulemin: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 0:49PHXKeith Yandle: Hooking2 min
- P1 1:52TORDion Phaneuf: Hooking2 min
- P1 4:07PHXRay Whitney: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:44PHXRadim Vrbata: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:48PHXShane Doan: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 0:36TORMikhail Grabovski: Holding2 min
- P2 19:33PHXDerek Morris: Holding2 min
- P2 19:53PHXVernon Fiddler: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:53TORMikhail Grabovski: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 19:53TORClarke MacArthur: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:53TORClarke MacArthur: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 5:33TORFrancois Beauchemin: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:33PHXEric Belanger: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:33PHXEric Belanger: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:07TORDarryl Boyce: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against Boyce
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Armstrong – Boyce – Brown8:53
xG 0.31–0.34 (48%)attempts 4–4goals 1–1
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin8:45
xG 0.26–0.32 (45%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Crabb – Kessel – Bozak9:44
xG 0.31–0.58 (35%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKaberle – Schenn10:09
xG 0.39–0.07 (85%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Phaneuf9:28
xG 0.43–0.64 (40%)attempts 6–6goals 1–1
- Komisarek – Gunnarsson9:52
xG 0.15–0.55 (22%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestWhitney – Vrbata – Hanzal6:01
xG 0.52–0.03 (95%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Korpikoski – Turris – Boedker6:57
xG 0.49–0.13 (79%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Whitney – Doan – Belanger2:52
xG 0.18–0.04 (83%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Fiddler – Korpikoski2:14
xG 0.02–0.03 (45%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMorris – Yandle13:12
xG 0.67–0.05 (93%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Aucoin – Jovanovski8:56
xG 0.43–0.15 (73%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Lepisto – Ekman-Larsson8:03
xG 0.32–0.16 (67%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).