Thu, Jan 13, 2011·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Edmonton Oilers 5, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 19 | 29 | 211 | 529 |
| SJS | 014 | 014 | 215 | 243 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:34EDMAndrew CoglianoAssists: Liam Reddox · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 3:50EDMDustin PennerAssists: Ales Hemsky, Taylor Hall · Slap, 0.23 xG2–0
- P2 15:36EDMTaylor HallGWGAssists: Ales Hemsky, Tom Gilbert · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–0
- P3 5:55SJSJoe ThorntonPPAssists: Dany Heatley, Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 9:14EDMLinus OmarkAssists: Ales Hemsky, Magnus Paajarvi · Wrist, 0.38 xG4–1
- P3 19:11SJSRyane ClowePPAssists: Joe Thornton, Dany Heatley · Tip-in, 0.22 xG4–2
- P3 19:57EDMTaylor HallENAssists: Ales Hemsky · Wrist, 0.64 xG5–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 6:38SJSRyane Clowe: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:38EDMTheo Peckham: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:29EDMLadislav Smid: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:29SJSJamie McGinn: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:22EDMAles Hemsky: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:26SJSNiclas Wallin: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:12EDMAndrew Cogliano: Interference2 min
- P2 18:41EDMLinus Omark: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:45EDMLinus Omark: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:04SJSRyane Clowe: Holding2 min
- P3 7:09SJSKent Huskins: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 12:01SJSJamal Mayers: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 17:37EDMLinus Omark: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cogliano won the faceoff against Nichol
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Gagner – Omark – Paajarvi11:19
xG 0.33–0.29 (53%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Jacques – Fraser – MacIntyre2:57
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Penner – Hall10:41
xG 0.99–1.09 (48%)attempts 14–17goals 2–0
- Jones – Reddox – Cogliano10:14
xG 0.18–0.33 (35%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Petry2:17
xG 0.40–0.18 (68%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Foster – Chorney7:14
xG 0.27–0.28 (50%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Smid – Petry12:36
xG 0.42–0.57 (43%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHeatley – Clowe – Pavelski4:11
xG 0.74–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Heatley2:55
xG 0.63–0.05 (93%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Nichol – McGinn – Ferriero8:04
xG 0.32–0.12 (73%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Setoguchi9:47
xG 0.27–0.37 (42%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Demers6:51
xG 0.69–0.22 (76%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Boyle – Murray12:02
xG 0.67–0.19 (77%)attempts 24–9goals 0–1
- Boyle – Huskins2:41
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).