Fri, Jan 14, 2011·Verizon Center, Washington
Vancouver Canucks 4, Washington Capitals 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 115 | 214 | 16 | 435 |
| WSH | 18 | 08 | 111 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:50WSHMatt HendricksAssists: Boyd Gordon, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 8:15VANAlexander EdlerAssists: Jannik Hansen, Christian Ehrhoff · Slap, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 3:46VANChristian EhrhoffPPAssists: Ryan Kesler, Daniel Sedin · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 15:59VANDaniel SedinGWGAssists: Jannik Hansen · Snap, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 9:21WSHMarcus JohanssonAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Brooks Laich · Snap, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 19:18VANDaniel SedinENAssists: Alexandre Burrows, Kevin Bieksa · Wrist, 0.69 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
- P2 3:02WSHJason Chimera: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 9:15WSHAlex Ovechkin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 16:38VANAlexandre Burrows: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 18:40VANAlexander Edler: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:49WSHMike Green: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:35VANTanner Glass: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Steckel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBolduc – Glass – Hansen6:27
xG 1.22–0.14 (90%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Kesler – Tambellini – Raymond14:10
xG 1.23–0.45 (73%)attempts 18–10goals 0–1
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows11:38
xG 0.79–0.40 (66%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
- Malhotra – Samuelsson – Torres9:44
xG 0.17–0.13 (56%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Edler12:27
xG 1.10–0.21 (84%)attempts 16–11goals 2–1
- Hamhuis – Ballard2:04
xG 0.88–0.06 (94%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Ehrhoff3:19
xG 0.71–0.02 (98%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestKnuble – Ovechkin – Backstrom5:52
xG 0.26–0.10 (72%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Knuble – Laich – Johansson6:31
xG 0.11–0.30 (28%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Fehr – Ovechkin – Backstrom10:03
xG 0.17–0.40 (30%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Steckel – Gordon10:57
xG 0.48–0.81 (37%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Erskine13:01
xG 0.50–0.45 (53%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Alzner – Carlson12:31
xG 0.42–1.21 (26%)attempts 13–16goals 2–0
- Schultz – Green17:34
xG 0.38–2.33 (14%)attempts 11–28goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).