Fri, Jan 14, 2011·Philips Arena, Atlanta
Philadelphia Flyers 5, Atlanta Thrashers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 010 | 215 | 311 | 536 |
| ATL | 011 | 212 | 06 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 16:37ATLAndrew LaddAssists: Niclas Bergfors · Snap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 17:13PHIJody ShelleyUnassisted · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 17:34PHIKimmo TimonenAssists: Claude Giroux, James van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 19:57ATLRich PeverleyPPAssists: Niclas Bergfors, Toby Enstrom · Snap, 0.54 xG2–2
- P3 12:48PHIDaniel BrièreGWGAssists: Ville Leino, Scott Hartnell · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 17:03PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Matt Carle, Jeff Carter · Snap, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 19:20PHIJeff CarterENUnassisted · Snap, 0.62 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 15:20ATLAnthony Stewart: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 17:52PHIDarroll Powe: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:00ATLNik Antropov: Interference2 min
- P2 2:13ATLToby Enstrom: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:01PHIKimmo Timonen: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:19PHIAndrej Meszaros: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Peverley
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestZherdev – Richards – Nodl9:30
xG 0.15–0.03 (84%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Brière – Hartnell – Leino12:47
xG 0.52–0.42 (56%)attempts 14–15goals 1–1
- Shelley – Betts – Powe5:16
xG 0.07–0.05 (57%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Carter – Giroux – van Riemsdyk13:29
xG 0.71–0.88 (45%)attempts 15–15goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Meszaros7:00
xG 0.52–0.11 (82%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- O'Donnell – Walker3:08
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Timonen – Coburn13:54
xG 0.56–0.56 (50%)attempts 15–10goals 2–0
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Peverley – Bergfors13:10
xG 1.01–0.52 (66%)attempts 14–14goals 1–2
- Boulton – Thorburn – Stewart2:52
xG 0.14–0.11 (57%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Stewart – Little – Kane9:01
xG 0.40–0.48 (46%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Machacek – Cormier – Burmistrov6:57
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 1–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien17:36
xG 1.35–0.49 (73%)attempts 23–16goals 1–2
- Sopel – Hainsey10:58
xG 0.13–0.21 (39%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Oduya – Bogosian15:40
xG 0.11–0.75 (13%)attempts 7–15goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ATL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).