Sat, Jan 15, 2011·Centre Bell, Montreal
New York Rangers 2, Montréal Canadiens 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 16 | 06 | 121 | 233 |
| MTL | 316 | 013 | 012 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:58NYRBrian BoyleAssists: Brandon Prust, Dan Girardi · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–0
- P1 13:19MTLRoman HamrlikPPAssists: James Wisniewski, Michael Cammalleri · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 14:50MTLTomas PlekanecPPAssists: P.K. Subban, James Wisniewski · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P1 16:03MTLAndrei KostitsynGWGAssists: Jeff Halpern · Slap, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 6:57NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: Derek Stepan, Dan Girardi · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–3
Penalties (14)
- P1 7:41MTLP.K. Subban: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:10NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 14:02NYRMichael Sauer: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 16:06MTLTravis Moen: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:06NYRKris Newbury: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:35MTLJaroslav Spacek: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 7:24NYRDerek Stepan: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 15:00NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:47MTLMax Pacioretty: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 17:47MTLBrian Gionta: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:47MTLMax Pacioretty: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:47NYRHenrik Lundqvist: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:47NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:55MTLHal Gill: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Dubinsky – Anisimov7:10
xG 0.78–0.38 (68%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Drury – Stepan – Zuccarello3:05
xG 0.47–0.10 (83%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Fedotenko – Boyle – Prust6:26
xG 0.44–0.23 (66%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Fedotenko – Newbury – Wolski2:17
xG 0.14–0.02 (86%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Girardi15:18
xG 1.71–0.13 (93%)attempts 23–9goals 2–0
- McDonagh – Gilroy10:08
xG 0.07–0.10 (41%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Eminger – Girardi2:05
xG 0.01–0.05 (23%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Cammalleri – Plekanec – Eller10:21
xG 0.71–0.90 (44%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
- Darche – Pouliot – Desharnais6:35
xG 0.15–0.36 (30%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Halpern – Moen – Kostitsyn8:36
xG 0.15–0.45 (25%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
- Gomez – Gionta – Pacioretty9:52
xG 0.36–0.89 (29%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGill – Subban15:21
xG 0.35–0.12 (75%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Hamrlik – Wisniewski14:06
xG 0.59–1.13 (34%)attempts 9–23goals 0–0
- Spacek – Weber9:26
xG 0.41–1.35 (23%)attempts 19–10goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).