Sat, Jan 15, 2011·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Buffalo Sabres 3, New York Islanders 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 014 | 114 | 215 | 343 |
| NYI | 015 | 418 | 14 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:17BUFThomas VanekPPAssists: Tyler Ennis, Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–0
- P2 7:50NYIJohn TavaresAssists: PA Parenteau, Matt Moulson · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 10:34NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: Matt Moulson, Andrew MacDonald · Backhand, 0.26 xG1–2
- P2 13:36NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Matt Moulson, PA Parenteau · Backhand, 0.22 xG1–3
- P2 15:25NYIBlake ComeauGWGAssists: Josh Bailey, Bruno Gervais · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–4
- P3 5:55BUFTyler EnnisPPAssists: Jordan Leopold, Jason Pominville · Snap, 0.15 xG2–4
- P3 16:52NYIMichael GrabnerSHAssists: Matt Martin, Milan Jurcina · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–5
- P3 18:15BUFJochen HechtAssists: Jason Pominville, Thomas Vanek · Snap, 0.22 xG3–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 14:48BUFSteve Montador: Holding2 min
- P1 19:26NYIMilan Jurcina: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:44NYIRadek Martinek: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:44BUFRob Niedermayer: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:27BUFRob Niedermayer: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:38NYIJeremy Colliton: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:36NYIMilan Jurcina: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 15:19NYIJosh Bailey: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Konopka won the faceoff against Gaustad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGaustad – McCormick – Gerbe12:31
xG 1.05–0.67 (61%)attempts 19–13goals 0–1
- Hecht – Pominville – Vanek4:02
xG 0.45–0.14 (76%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Stafford – Ennis – Adam3:01
xG 0.37–0.13 (74%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Connolly – Pominville – Vanek5:30
xG 0.47–0.78 (38%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLeopold – Montador16:20
xG 1.30–0.57 (70%)attempts 28–14goals 1–0
- Morrisonn – Weber13:24
xG 1.00–1.25 (44%)attempts 17–19goals 0–1
- Sekera – Myers14:59
xG 0.82–1.37 (38%)attempts 15–19goals 0–2
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Moulson – Tavares12:39
xG 1.52–0.68 (69%)attempts 17–16goals 2–0
- Schremp – Comeau – Bailey9:52
xG 0.84–0.46 (65%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Colliton – Joensuu – Grabner5:17
xG 0.46–0.15 (75%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Konopka – Joensuu – Martin2:56
xG 0.10–0.04 (70%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Hamonic11:48
xG 0.83–0.64 (56%)attempts 17–13goals 1–1
- Jurcina – Hillen11:35
xG 1.05–1.01 (51%)attempts 14–20goals 0–0
- Martinek – Gervais17:37
xG 0.54–1.52 (26%)attempts 15–24goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).