Sat, Jan 15, 2011·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Chicago Blackhawks 2, Nashville Predators 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 19 | 114 | 07 | 03 | 0 | 233 |
| NSH | 07 | 05 | 213 | 01 | 1 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:59CHITomas KopeckyPPAssists: Dave Bolland, Brian Campbell · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–0
- P2 4:29CHIViktor StalbergAssists: Jake Dowell, Jack Skille · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P3 9:46NSHJerred SmithsonAssists: Nick Spaling, Joel Ward · Snap, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 12:20NSHShea WeberAssists: Ryan Suter, Joel Ward · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. CHI Jonathan Toews stopped
- 2. NSH Marcel Goc scored
- 3. CHI Patrick Kane stopped
- 4. NSH Martin Erat stopped
- 5. CHI Patrick Sharp stopped
Penalties (4)
- P1 13:15NSHPatric Hornqvist: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 1:16CHIBrent Seabrook: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:58CHIMarian Hossa: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:02NSHAndreas Thuresson: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bolland won the faceoff against Goc
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Kopecky – Sharp13:30
xG 0.51–0.34 (60%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Dowell – Skille – Stalberg7:40
xG 0.30–0.15 (67%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Brouwer – Toews – Kane12:08
xG 0.48–0.42 (53%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Pisani – Bolland – Bickell12:03
xG 0.31–0.58 (35%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Hjalmarsson15:12
xG 0.63–0.52 (55%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Keith – Seabrook20:59
xG 0.55–0.65 (46%)attempts 18–20goals 0–1
- Hendry – Leddy11:24
xG 0.09–0.62 (13%)attempts 2–13goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestGoc – Kostitsyn – Hornqvist7:02
xG 0.53–0.34 (61%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Erat – Goc – Kostitsyn5:42
xG 0.23–0.10 (70%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Dumont – Thuresson – Mueller5:39
xG 0.14–0.10 (58%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Smithson – Ward – Spaling11:42
xG 0.48–0.45 (52%)attempts 12–8goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Weber19:44
xG 1.00–0.62 (62%)attempts 27–14goals 2–0
- Sulzer – Franson11:38
xG 0.51–0.21 (71%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Bouillon – Klein15:08
xG 0.21–0.65 (25%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).