Sat, Jan 15, 2011·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Anaheim Ducks 2, Phoenix Coyotes 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 17 | 014 | 17 | 228 |
| PHX | 113 | 313 | 28 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:35PHXRay WhitneyAssists: Radim Vrbata · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 9:18ANAMatt BeleskeyAssists: Bobby Ryan, Corey Perry · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 0:31PHXAdrian AucoinAssists: Lee Stempniak, Vernon Fiddler · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 12:29PHXTaylor PyattGWGAssists: Keith Yandle, Lee Stempniak · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–3
- P2 18:19PHXSami LepistoAssists: Ray Whitney, Martin Hanzal · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–4
- P3 7:01PHXRay WhitneyAssists: Radim Vrbata, Sami Lepisto · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–5
- P3 12:10ANACorey PerryPPAssists: Lubomir Visnovsky, Jason Blake · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–5
- P3 15:59PHXLee StempniakAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Lauri Korpikoski · Slap, 0.05 xG2–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:29ANATeemu Selanne: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 17:51ANACorey Perry: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:21PHXAdrian Aucoin: Interference2 min
- P2 9:50ANAAndy Sutton: Cross checking2 min
- P3 1:39PHXVernon Fiddler: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:39ANAMatt Beleskey: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:39ANABobby Ryan: Interference2 min
- P3 2:50PHXKyle Turris: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:27PHXDavid Schlemko: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Fiddler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Marchant – Parros – Sexton8:09
xG 0.21–0.22 (48%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Selanne – Koivu – Blake6:14
xG 0.34–0.49 (41%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
- Selanne – Koivu – Sexton2:05
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Perry – Ryan – Beleskey7:13
xG 0.19–0.38 (33%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSutton – Sbisa12:42
xG 0.52–0.33 (61%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Visnovsky – Fowler2:49
xG 0.05–0.36 (12%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
- Lilja – Fowler14:06
xG 0.17–0.74 (19%)attempts 6–15goals 1–3
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestWhitney – Vrbata – Hanzal9:53
xG 0.88–0.41 (68%)attempts 8–10goals 2–1
- Pyatt – Fiddler – Stempniak8:54
xG 0.38–0.05 (88%)attempts 9–2goals 2–0
- Bissonnette – Korpikoski – Turris2:12
xG 0.16–0.04 (78%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Korpikoski – Turris2:07
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMorris – Yandle9:35
xG 0.92–0.33 (74%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Aucoin – Lepisto8:46
xG 0.72–0.18 (80%)attempts 11–5goals 2–0
- Lepisto – Schlemko3:38
xG 0.27–0.03 (90%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).