Sat, Jan 15, 2011·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Edmonton Oilers 2, Los Angeles Kings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 28 | 010 | 08 | 226 |
| LAK | 28 | 19 | 26 | 523 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:02EDMDustin PennerAssists: Ales Hemsky, Taylor Hall · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 11:13LAKMarco SturmAssists: Drew Doughty, Wayne Simmonds · Tip-in, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 14:49LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Justin Williams · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–2
- P1 15:56EDMAndrew CoglianoAssists: Ryan Jones, Liam Reddox · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P2 7:08LAKJarret StollGWGAssists: Dustin Brown, Marco Sturm · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 2:44LAKDrew DoughtyUnassisted · Snap, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 18:10LAKJarret StollENAssists: Dustin Brown, Rob Scuderi · Wrist, 0.58 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:47LAKJack Johnson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 7:18LAKKyle Clifford: Cross checking2 min
- P2 1:19EDMDustin Penner: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:57LAKDustin Brown: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:28EDMTheo Peckham: Holding2 min
- P3 11:16LAKDustin Brown: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:55EDMKurtis Foster: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:41LAKMichal Handzus: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richardson won the faceoff against Cogliano
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHemsky – Penner – Hall12:31
xG 0.70–0.29 (71%)attempts 16–8goals 1–1
- Jones – Reddox – Cogliano10:01
xG 0.53–0.26 (67%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Jacques – Fraser – MacIntyre5:38
xG 0.09–0.06 (61%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Gagner – Omark – Paajarvi8:48
xG 0.25–0.83 (24%)attempts 4–13goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestSmid – Petry11:28
xG 0.53–0.42 (56%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
- Foster – Chorney10:14
xG 0.39–0.28 (58%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Gilbert – Peckham12:07
xG 0.31–0.85 (27%)attempts 7–11goals 0–2
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestSmyth – Williams – Kopitar13:29
xG 0.81–0.52 (61%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Sturm – Stoll – Brown6:31
xG 0.39–0.34 (54%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Richardson – Lewis – Clifford2:55
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Sturm – Stoll – Simmonds3:59
xG 0.09–0.14 (39%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Doughty10:29
xG 0.65–0.54 (54%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Johnson4:28
xG 0.25–0.29 (47%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Mitchell – Scuderi7:16
xG 0.32–0.42 (43%)attempts 3–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).