Mon, Jan 17, 2011·TD Garden, Boston
Carolina Hurricanes 0, Boston Bruins 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 012 | 011 | 08 | 031 |
| BOS | 315 | 214 | 29 | 738 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:56BOSMark StuartGWGAssists: Nathan Horton, Adam McQuaid · Slap, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 11:28BOSZdeno CharaAssists: Adam McQuaid · Snap, 0.08 xG0–2
- P1 15:58BOSZdeno CharaPPAssists: David Krejci, Patrice Bergeron · Slap, 0.15 xG0–3
- P2 15:51BOSGregory CampbellAssists: Shawn Thornton, Blake Wheeler · Tip-in, 0.21 xG0–4
- P2 16:04BOSPatrice BergeronUnassisted · Snap, 0.08 xG0–5
- P3 2:24BOSMichael RyderAssists: Dennis Seidenberg, Steven Kampfer · Tip-in, 0.18 xG0–6
- P3 14:04BOSZdeno CharaPPAssists: David Krejci, Milan Lucic · Slap, 0.07 xG0–7
Penalties (13)
- P1 9:15BOSZdeno Chara: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:04CARRyan Carter: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:31CAREric Staal: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:14BOSJohnny Boychuk: Interference2 min
- P2 10:26BOSNathan Horton: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:40BOSMichael Ryder: Holding2 min
- P2 17:54CARJustin Peters: Holding2 min
- P3 0:18CARJustin Peters: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:21CARJussi Jokinen: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 14:40CARTroy Bodie: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:40BOSAdam McQuaid: Instigator2 min
- P3 14:40BOSAdam McQuaid: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:40BOSAdam McQuaid: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- Samsonov – Cole – Staal3:15
xG 0.33–0.28 (54%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Samsonov – Bodie – Carter2:28
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Samsonov – Dwyer – Sutter2:18
xG 0.01–0.11 (11%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Dwyer – Sutter5:41
xG 0.08–0.26 (23%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Corvo – Pitkanen2:55
xG 0.09–0.07 (56%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Gleason – McBain2:24
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Pitkanen – McBain12:20
xG 0.44–0.59 (43%)attempts 17–15goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestSavard – Ryder – Horton9:38
xG 0.62–0.18 (78%)attempts 13–6goals 2–0
- Krejci – Lucic – Seguin10:45
xG 0.52–0.13 (80%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Recchi – Bergeron – Marchand10:22
xG 0.61–0.38 (61%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Wheeler8:52
xG 0.53–0.50 (51%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – McQuaid6:52
xG 0.47–0.03 (94%)attempts 10–5goals 2–0
- Chara – Kampfer11:32
xG 0.43–0.14 (75%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Boychuk – Stuart3:14
xG 0.28–0.02 (93%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).