Mon, Jan 17, 2011·Centre Bell, Montreal
Calgary Flames 4, Montréal Canadiens 5 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 010 | 210 | 28 | 00 | 428 |
| MTL | 212 | 210 | 06 | 11 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:27MTLLars EllerAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 11:42MTLMichael CammalleriAssists: Jeff Halpern, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 3:14MTLAndrei KostitsynAssists: Yannick Weber, Jaroslav Spacek · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–3
- P2 6:34MTLJeff HalpernAssists: Travis Moen, Jaroslav Spacek · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–4
- P2 13:26CGYRene BourqueAssists: Olli Jokinen, Cory Sarich · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–4
- P2 18:48CGYJarome IginlaAssists: Jay Bouwmeester · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–4
- P3 1:37CGYAles KotalikAssists: Olli Jokinen · Slap, 0.07 xG3–4
- P3 2:56CGYAlex TanguayAssists: Jarome Iginla, Brendan Morrison · Wrist, 0.36 xG4–4
- OT 1:06MTLP.K. SubbanGWGAssists: Scott Gomez, Hal Gill · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:24CGYAnton Babchuk: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:35MTLMichael Cammalleri: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:16MTLBrian Gionta: Interference2 min
- P1 18:01CGYAdam Pardy: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:21MTLBrian Gionta: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 14:34CGYTim Jackman: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 6:21MTLMax Pacioretty: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Gomez
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestMorrison – Iginla – Tanguay11:32
xG 0.80–0.11 (87%)attempts 14–10goals 2–0
- Jokinen – Kotalik – Bourque8:15
xG 0.63–0.26 (70%)attempts 8–12goals 2–0
- Jackman – Moss – Backlund5:34
xG 0.22–0.05 (82%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Hagman – Stajan – Glencross10:53
xG 0.28–0.35 (45%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRegehr – Bouwmeester12:53
xG 0.95–0.30 (76%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Babchuk – Pardy7:02
xG 0.51–0.20 (72%)attempts 8–11goals 1–2
- Giordano – Pardy4:48
xG 0.13–0.01 (92%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Gomez – Gionta – Pacioretty12:18
xG 0.51–0.48 (52%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Darche – Pyatt – Desharnais4:14
xG 0.02–0.14 (11%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
- Halpern – Moen – Kostitsyn8:03
xG 0.31–0.50 (38%)attempts 9–6goals 1–1
- Cammalleri – Plekanec – Eller10:50
xG 0.24–0.61 (29%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Hamrlik – Wisniewski15:41
xG 0.58–0.56 (51%)attempts 19–10goals 0–2
- Spacek – Weber13:19
xG 0.37–0.41 (48%)attempts 13–12goals 2–0
- Gill – Subban14:54
xG 0.34–0.43 (44%)attempts 14–17goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).