Mon, Jan 17, 2011·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Atlanta Thrashers 3, Florida Panthers 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 07 | 012 | 28 | 03 | 2 | 330 |
| FLA | 012 | 010 | 214 | 04 | 1 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 4:30FLADennis WidemanPPAssists: Mike Santorelli, Stephen Weiss · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P3 7:18FLADmitry KulikovPPAssists: Cory Stillman, Stephen Weiss · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–2
- P3 18:02ATLBryan LittleAssists: Nik Antropov, Rich Peverley · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
- P3 18:46ATLChris ThorburnAssists: Evander Kane, Bryan Little · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. FLA Mike Santorelli scored
- 2. ATL Bryan Little scored
- 3. FLA Stephen Weiss stopped
- 4. ATL Alexander Burmistrov scored
- 5. FLA Cory Stillman stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:30ATLNik Antropov: Slashing2 min
- P1 0:00ATLEvander Kane: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:43FLAKeaton Ellerby: Interference2 min
- P3 3:05ATLPatrice Cormier: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 3:30ATLJohnny Oduya: Holding2 min
- P3 6:59ATLToby Enstrom: Slashing2 min · PPG
- OT 4:37FLADmitry Kulikov: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Peverley won the faceoff against Reasoner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- Boulton – Antropov – Thorburn10:46
xG 0.33–0.39 (46%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Machacek – Cormier – Burmistrov4:42
xG 0.03–0.11 (22%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Stewart – Little – Kane11:38
xG 0.16–0.36 (31%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Ladd – Peverley – Bergfors12:31
xG 0.46–0.97 (32%)attempts 18–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Meyer12:56
xG 0.59–0.45 (57%)attempts 19–13goals 0–0
- Sopel – Oduya13:08
xG 0.15–0.55 (21%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien21:15
xG 0.34–1.18 (23%)attempts 19–26goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestStillman – Dvorak – Reasoner13:52
xG 0.46–0.13 (78%)attempts 20–7goals 0–0
- Weiss – Frolik – Dadonov13:18
xG 0.65–0.37 (64%)attempts 14–17goals 0–0
- Bernier – Booth – Matthias3:29
xG 0.33–0.08 (80%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Hordichuk – Bernier – Matthias4:28
xG 0.19–0.03 (87%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Garrison16:14
xG 0.82–0.26 (76%)attempts 20–19goals 0–0
- Allen – Wideman15:11
xG 0.85–0.47 (64%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Ellerby – Kulikov14:33
xG 0.45–0.14 (77%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − ATL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).