Tue, Jan 18, 2011·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Detroit Red Wings 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 013 | 112 | 012 | 137 |
| PIT | 216 | 19 | 14 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:02PITJordan StaalAssists: Tyler Kennedy · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 11:29PITChris ConnerGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.36 xG0–2
- P2 17:28DETJohan FranzenAssists: Patrick Eaves, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 17:58PITChris KunitzAssists: Pascal Dupuis, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–3
- P3 18:41PITMatt CookeENAssists: Tyler Kennedy, Brooks Orpik · Wrist, 0.67 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:29DETKris Draper: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 4:28PITMatt Cooke: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:06PITChris Kunitz: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:18DETRuslan Salei: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:34PITKris Letang: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:49DETJakub Kindl: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:49PITMike Rupp: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:49PITMike Rupp: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAbdelkader – Mursak – Tatar8:11
xG 0.41–0.16 (71%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Eaves – Franzen12:52
xG 0.66–0.53 (55%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Bertuzzi – Filppula – Hudler13:01
xG 0.26–0.39 (40%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Draper – Miller – Helm9:59
xG 0.14–0.62 (19%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRafalski – Ericsson13:23
xG 0.77–0.40 (66%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
- Kronwall – Ericsson2:30
xG 0.15–0.03 (85%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Salei – Kindl13:40
xG 0.48–0.55 (47%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Kunitz – Malkin10:58
xG 0.79–0.19 (81%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Cooke – Kennedy – Staal13:20
xG 0.54–0.57 (49%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Rupp – Talbot – Conner7:31
xG 0.16–0.20 (44%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Asham – Adams – Letestu6:40
xG 0.06–0.39 (14%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Goligoski7:05
xG 0.69–0.30 (69%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Martin – Michalek13:15
xG 0.28–0.25 (53%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Engelland – Michalek2:08
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).