Tue, Jan 18, 2011·RBC Center, Raleigh
Boston Bruins 3, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 111 | 09 | 28 | 328 |
| CAR | 119 | 019 | 17 | 245 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:04BOSJohnny BoychukPPAssists: Michael Ryder, Marc Savard · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 18:39CARJussi JokinenPPAssists: Eric Staal, Joe Corvo · Wrist, 0.47 xG1–1
- P3 3:55BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Zdeno Chara, Mark Recchi · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–1
- P3 9:19CARChad LaRoseAssists: Tuomo Ruutu, Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- P3 11:49BOSMilan LucicPPGWGAssists: Mark Recchi, Steven Kampfer · Snap, 0.25 xG3–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:17CARJussi Jokinen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 6:44BOSDennis Seidenberg: Cross checking2 min
- P1 7:34CAREric Staal: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:43BOSBrad Marchand: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 0:00BOSTim Thomas: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:06CARTuomo Ruutu: Elbowing2 min
- P2 6:19BOSNathan Horton: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:11BOSJohnny Boychuk: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:17CARPatrick Dwyer: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 10:42CARChad LaRose: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P3 19:32CARTuomo Ruutu: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Campbell – Wheeler7:52
xG 0.28–0.09 (76%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Krejci – Lucic – Seguin8:47
xG 0.44–0.39 (53%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Savard – Ryder – Horton8:20
xG 0.31–0.49 (39%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
- Recchi – Bergeron – Marchand9:11
xG 0.50–0.86 (37%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – McQuaid9:42
xG 0.44–0.12 (78%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Chara – Seidenberg3:54
xG 0.21–0.17 (55%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
- Chara – Kampfer9:18
xG 0.42–0.44 (49%)attempts 5–15goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – LaRose – Skinner9:26
xG 1.12–0.36 (76%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
- Samsonov – Cole – Staal7:11
xG 0.64–0.52 (55%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Cole – Jokinen – Staal2:16
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Bodie – Carter – Boychuk2:56
xG 0.09–0.20 (31%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCorvo – Gleason11:14
xG 0.92–0.55 (63%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
- Pitkanen – McBain12:18
xG 0.77–0.46 (63%)attempts 25–9goals 0–0
- Corvo – Pitkanen2:04
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).