Tue, Jan 18, 2011·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 113 | 19 | 05 | 03 | 0 | 230 |
| TBL | 16 | 111 | 05 | 00 | 1 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:34CBJR.J. UmbergerAssists: Antoine Vermette, Mathieu Garon · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 17:52TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Victor Hedman · Snap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 14:24TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Martin St. Louis, Pavel Kubina · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 15:16CBJDerick BrassardAssists: Rick Nash, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. TBL Victor Hedman stopped
- 2. CBJ Rick Nash stopped
- 3. TBL Adam Hall stopped
- 4. CBJ Kyle Wilson stopped
- 5. TBL Steven Stamkos stopped
- 6. CBJ Kristian Huselius stopped
- 7. TBL Ryan Malone scored
- 8. CBJ Antoine Vermette stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 14:26TBLSteven Stamkos: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:52CBJChris Clark: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:18TBLTeddy Purcell: Holding2 min
- P2 13:09CBJRostislav Klesla: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:27CBJMarc Methot: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:46TBLTeddy Purcell: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 9:45CBJRick Nash: Charging2 min
- P3 12:15TBLAdam Hall: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lecavalier won the faceoff against Pahlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Boll – Calvert3:53
xG 0.42–0.02 (95%)attempts 5–1goals 0–1
- Nash – Brassard – Voracek12:02
xG 0.77–0.38 (67%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
- Clark – Pahlsson – Dorsett10:59
xG 0.30–0.14 (68%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Huselius – Vermette – Umberger11:35
xG 0.30–0.26 (54%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlesla – Tyutin17:38
xG 0.68–0.36 (65%)attempts 13–15goals 1–1
- Clitsome – Russell8:51
xG 0.41–0.23 (64%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Hejda – Methot16:25
xG 0.31–0.32 (49%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- St. Louis – Lecavalier – Moore3:02
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Gagne – Purcell – Stamkos2:30
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Lecavalier – Bergenheim7:00
xG 0.07–0.22 (25%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Gagne – Downie – Stamkos5:01
xG 0.06–0.21 (21%)attempts 6–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKubina – Jones7:09
xG 0.44–0.20 (69%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Ohlund – Jones2:00
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Kubina – Lundin2:38
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).