Tue, Jan 18, 2011·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Los Angeles Kings 1, St. Louis Blues 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 09 | 111 | 07 | 127 |
| STL | 112 | 07 | 17 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:56STLPatrik BerglundPPAssists: Matt D'Agostini, Alex Pietrangelo · Snap, 0.29 xG0–1
- P2 16:21LAKKyle CliffordAssists: Matt Greene, Brad Richardson · Slap, 0.01 xG1–1
- P3 13:13STLErik JohnsonGWGAssists: Alexander Steen, Eric Brewer · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 10:03LAKAlexei Ponikarovsky: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P1 11:15LAKDustin Brown: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:24STLVladimir Sobotka: Interference2 min
- P1 15:56STLRoman Polak: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:56LAKKyle Clifford: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:24STLBarret Jackman: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:21LAKWillie Mitchell: Holding2 min
- P2 4:40STLJay McClement: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:44LAKDrew Doughty: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:31STLVladimir Sobotka: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:39LAKDrew Doughty: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Berglund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestPonikarovsky – Brown – Kopitar9:47
xG 0.64–0.25 (72%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Richardson – Westgarth – Clifford4:51
xG 0.36–0.09 (79%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Handzus – Sturm – Lewis6:49
xG 0.13–0.19 (41%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
- Smyth – Williams – Stoll11:35
xG 0.33–0.66 (33%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Doughty13:50
xG 0.98–0.40 (71%)attempts 13–17goals 0–1
- Greene – Martinez9:27
xG 0.14–0.30 (31%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Johnson11:21
xG 0.22–0.42 (34%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestCrombeen – Reaves – McRae3:52
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Steen – Backes – D'Agostini8:28
xG 0.32–0.26 (55%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Oshie – Sobotka – Berglund9:46
xG 0.27–0.53 (34%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Boyes – Winchester – McClement7:46
xG 0.15–0.64 (19%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Pietrangelo6:20
xG 0.25–0.15 (62%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Brewer – Polak4:25
xG 0.09–0.04 (72%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Johnson – Pietrangelo3:00
xG 0.08–0.14 (36%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).