Tue, Jan 18, 2011·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Minnesota Wild 4, Edmonton Oilers 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 28 | 09 | 29 | 426 |
| EDM | 011 | 012 | 19 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:39MINMatt CullenAssists: Eric Nystrom, Pierre-Marc Bouchard · Backhand, 0.27 xG1–0
- P1 3:25MINBrent BurnsGWGAssists: Kyle Brodziak, Martin Havlat · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P3 10:04MINPierre-Marc BouchardAssists: Eric Nystrom, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–0
- P3 12:07MINAndrew BrunettePPAssists: Matt Cullen, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–0
- P3 16:14EDMMagnus PaajarviPPAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Taylor Chorney · Snap, 0.09 xG4–1
Penalties (20)
- P1 9:19MINNick Schultz: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 17:26MINCal Clutterbuck: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 3:20MINBrad Staubitz: Interference2 min
- P2 9:38MINAntti Miettinen: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:58MINGreg Zanon: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:07MINGreg Zanon: Interference2 min
- P3 4:52EDMLinus Omark: Holding2 min
- P3 12:02EDMZack Stortini: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 12:02MINBrent Burns: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 12:02EDMZack Stortini: Misconduct10 min
- P3 12:02MINBrent Burns: Misconduct10 min
- P3 12:02EDMTheo Peckham: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:02MINMartin Havlat: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:02EDMTheo Peckham: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:23EDMLadislav Smid: Misconduct10 min
- P3 15:52EDMJean-Francois Jacques: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:52MINBrad Staubitz: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:52MINBrad Staubitz: Instigator2 min
- P3 15:52MINBrad Staubitz: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 18:48EDMTheo Peckham: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Cogliano
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHavlat – Brodziak – Clutterbuck8:59
xG 0.72–0.14 (84%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Cullen – Bouchard – Nystrom6:19
xG 0.60–0.17 (77%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Madden – Kobasew – Staubitz4:20
xG 0.04–0.05 (45%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Brunette – Miettinen – Koivu9:06
xG 0.09–0.14 (40%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarker – Spurgeon10:15
xG 0.67–0.13 (84%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Zanon – Stoner12:24
xG 0.89–0.38 (70%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Schultz – Burns12:16
xG 0.25–0.31 (44%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestJacques – Fraser – Stortini5:41
xG 0.24–0.14 (64%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Jones – Reddox – Cogliano7:43
xG 0.09–0.11 (46%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Omark – Paajarvi2:19
xG 0.01–0.06 (18%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Penner – Gagner – Hall6:37
xG 0.24–0.34 (41%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFoster – Chorney9:23
xG 0.42–0.11 (79%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Petry2:40
xG 0.07–0.09 (44%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Smid – Peckham2:07
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).