Wed, Jan 19, 2011·Madison Square Garden, New York
Toronto Maple Leafs 0, New York Rangers 7
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 08 | 05 | 09 | 022 |
| NYR | 414 | 210 | 14 | 728 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:55NYRMarian GaborikGWGAssists: Sean Avery, Artem Anisimov · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 12:45NYRBrian BoylePPAssists: Marc Staal, Marian Gaborik · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–2
- P1 13:21NYRMarian GaborikAssists: Artem Anisimov, Sean Avery · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–3
- P1 15:40NYRRuslan FedotenkoAssists: Brandon Prust, Marc Staal · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–4
- P2 11:15NYRMarian GaborikAssists: Sean Avery, Artem Anisimov · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–5
- P2 14:44NYRMarian GaborikPPAssists: Artem Anisimov, Wojtek Wolski · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–6
- P3 0:53NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: Derek Stepan, Wojtek Wolski · Snap, 0.13 xG0–7
Penalties (16)
- P1 3:13NYRKris Newbury: Boarding2 min
- P1 7:44NYRChris Drury: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 12:16TORColton Orr: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 0:00TORDarryl Boyce: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:32NYRDale Weise: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:32TORLuke Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:20TORColton Orr: Charging2 min · PPG
- P3 4:16NYRMatt Gilroy: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:18TORDion Phaneuf: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:18NYRKris Newbury: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:18TORDion Phaneuf: Misconduct10 min
- P3 11:18NYRKris Newbury: Misconduct10 min
- P3 12:41NYRRyan McDonagh: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:41TORColby Armstrong: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:03TORColton Orr: Slashing5 min
- P3 18:03TORColton Orr: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Boyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestArmstrong – Boyce – Versteeg8:40
xG 0.51–0.28 (65%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin10:23
xG 0.80–0.61 (57%)attempts 13–5goals 0–2
- Orr – Brent – Mueller7:01
xG 0.07–0.05 (61%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Crabb – Kessel – Bozak8:01
xG 0.42–0.94 (31%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKomisarek – Gunnarsson10:57
xG 0.90–0.56 (62%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Kaberle – Schenn12:16
xG 0.55–0.54 (51%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Beauchemin – Komisarek2:13
xG 0.02–0.27 (8%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestAvery – Gaborik – Anisimov9:00
xG 1.09–0.38 (74%)attempts 12–6goals 3–0
- Wolski – Stepan – Zuccarello7:04
xG 0.37–0.28 (57%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Fedotenko – Boyle – Prust4:00
xG 0.05–0.05 (51%)attempts 1–4goals 1–0
- Drury – Newbury – Weise8:24
xG 0.29–0.42 (41%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEminger – McDonagh14:40
xG 1.41–1.13 (55%)attempts 16–13goals 3–0
- Staal – Girardi9:59
xG 0.60–0.54 (52%)attempts 6–16goals 2–0
- McDonagh – Gilroy2:28
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).