Wed, Jan 19, 2011·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Florida Panthers 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 17 | 011 | 117 | 13 | 338 |
| FLA | 215 | 06 | 09 | 01 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:43FLADavid BoothAssists: Mike Santorelli, Dmitry Kulikov · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 8:21FLACory StillmanAssists: Radek Dvorak, Dmitry Kulikov · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–2
- P1 18:41CBJFedor TyutinUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 19:07CBJAntoine VermetteAssists: Grant Clitsome, Fedor Tyutin · Tip-in, 0.34 xG2–2
- OT 4:06CBJR.J. UmbergerPPGWGAssists: Grant Clitsome, Rick Nash · Tip-in, 0.22 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 15:01CBJDerick Brassard: Holding2 min
- P2 10:46FLADarcy Hordichuk: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:46CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:02CBJDerek MacKenzie: Charging2 min
- P2 12:04FLACory Stillman: Holding2 min
- P2 14:08CBJR.J. Umberger: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:33FLAMike Weaver: Interference2 min
- P3 12:53CBJMatt Calvert: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- OT 3:33FLADmitry Kulikov: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pahlsson won the faceoff against Reasoner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMacKenzie – Boll – Calvert5:35
xG 0.28–0.03 (91%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Nash – Brassard – Voracek14:29
xG 0.61–0.59 (51%)attempts 17–16goals 0–0
- Vermette – Umberger – Calvert2:30
xG 0.13–0.15 (46%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Huselius – Vermette – Umberger7:20
xG 0.35–0.39 (47%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestClitsome – Russell17:36
xG 0.82–0.64 (56%)attempts 20–15goals 0–0
- Methot – Stralman13:17
xG 0.34–0.37 (48%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Klesla – Tyutin12:00
xG 0.23–0.53 (30%)attempts 9–9goals 1–2
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestWeiss – Frolik – Dadonov11:26
xG 0.51–0.14 (79%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Olesz – Booth – Santorelli8:17
xG 0.46–0.29 (61%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Hordichuk – Bernier – Matthias5:28
xG 0.17–0.11 (62%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Stillman – Dvorak – Reasoner11:07
xG 0.45–0.80 (36%)attempts 8–18goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Garrison14:27
xG 0.63–0.20 (76%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Allen – Wideman13:09
xG 0.76–0.34 (69%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Wideman – Ellerby2:46
xG 0.11–0.03 (77%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).