Thu, Jan 20, 2011·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Anaheim Ducks 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 19 | 18 | 011 | 228 |
| TOR | 115 | 212 | 210 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:55ANADan SextonAssists: Lubomir Visnovsky, Matt Beleskey · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 11:43TORClarke MacArthurAssists: Phil Kessel, Tyler Bozak · Snap, 0.36 xG1–1
- P2 5:23ANABrandon McMillanAssists: Joffrey Lupul · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–1
- P2 13:10TORCarl GunnarssonAssists: Clarke MacArthur · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 16:15TORTyler BozakGWGAssists: Phil Kessel, Dion Phaneuf · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 5:57TORMikhail GrabovskiUnassisted · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 11:40TORMikhail GrabovskiAssists: Clarke MacArthur · Backhand, 0.03 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:15TORColton Orr: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:15ANAGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:51ANAJason Blake: Interference2 min
- P1 0:00ANABobby Ryan: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:44TORTomas Kaberle: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:59TORMarcel Mueller: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestLupul – Lapierre – McMillan5:50
xG 0.34–0.17 (67%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
- Perry – Lapierre – Ryan2:00
xG 0.15–0.09 (61%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Marchant – Parros – Sexton3:31
xG 0.10–0.07 (58%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Marchant – Lupul – Beleskey3:11
xG 0.06–0.07 (47%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrookbank – Fowler12:47
xG 0.55–0.48 (53%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
- Sutton – Sbisa10:53
xG 0.23–0.16 (58%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Lydman – Visnovsky13:50
xG 0.83–0.79 (51%)attempts 16–12goals 2–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin12:35
xG 0.96–0.32 (75%)attempts 17–13goals 2–1
- Crabb – Kessel – Bozak11:12
xG 0.49–0.51 (49%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Brent – Kessel – Mueller2:02
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Armstrong – Boyce – Versteeg10:36
xG 0.15–0.43 (25%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKaberle – Schenn11:19
xG 1.10–0.49 (69%)attempts 14–16goals 2–1
- Beauchemin – Schenn3:11
xG 0.43–0.08 (85%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Beauchemin – Komisarek2:14
xG 0.07–0.03 (73%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).